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Matagalpa vs Esteli

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Bello O.
61' Event
Da Silva R.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Primera 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Matagalpa
11%
Draws
80%
Esteli
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Esteli lately — more wins on the board than Matagalpa.
  • Win probability leans Esteli's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Liga Primera 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Matagalpa Clean Sheet 16%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matagalpa Esteli
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 18
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 5
Goals Scored 1.88 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
0:0
Feb 23, 2026 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Esteli
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Esteli
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
2:1
Jul 7, 2025 Copa Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Matagalpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Da Silva R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Bello O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matagalpa 11 / 100
Esteli 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matagalpa Esteli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EST Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matagalpa's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Esteli has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Matagalpa has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Matagalpa VS Esteli
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Matagalpa

(Home)
19 Jul
Matagalpa
0 : 3
Sport Sebaco
12 Jul
Jalapa
3 : 2
Matagalpa
05 Jul
Matagalpa
3 : 1
Jalapa
07 May
Diriangen
3 : 1
Matagalpa
03 May
Matagalpa
0 : 1
Diriangen
Page 1 of 6

Esteli

(Away)
18 Jul
Esteli
1 : 1
UNAN-Managua
11 Jul
Esteli
2 : 0
Xilotepelt
04 Jul
Xilotepelt
0 : 1
Esteli
17 May
Diriangen
1 : 2
Esteli
10 May
Esteli
1 : 1
Diriangen
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Diriangen18123340:1939
2Esteli18114341:1937
3Jalapa1896329:1633
4Managua FC1885522:1829
5Matagalpa1857630:2422
6Walter Ferreti1856718:2821
7Sport Sebaco18621023:2420
8UNAN-Managua18441021:3416
9Rancho Santana18441020:4316
10Real Madriz18431114:3315
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)