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Matagalpa vs Jalapa

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Copa Primera Estadio Municipal Carlos Fonseca, Matagalpa
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
24' Event
38' Event
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Matagalpa advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Matagalpa
33%
Draws
27%
Jalapa
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Matagalpa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Jalapa come out ahead of Matagalpa on wins alone.
  • Matagalpa are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Jalapa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Matagalpa, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Matagalpa Clean Sheet 13%
Jalapa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matagalpa Jalapa
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 14
Draws 7 7
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.88 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Copa Primera
Jalapa vs Matagalpa
3:2
Jul 5, 2026 Copa Primera
Matagalpa vs Jalapa
3:1
Apr 11, 2026 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Matagalpa
1:1
Feb 11, 2026 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Jalapa
1:3
Oct 26, 2025 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Jalapa
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matagalpa 39 / 100
Jalapa 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matagalpa Jalapa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Matagalpa scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Jalapa's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Jalapa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Matagalpa VS Jalapa
1.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Matagalpa

(Home)
26 Jul
Esteli
2 : 0
Matagalpa
19 Jul
Matagalpa
0 : 3
Sport Sebaco
12 Jul
Jalapa
3 : 2
Matagalpa
05 Jul
Matagalpa
3 : 1
Jalapa
07 May
Diriangen
3 : 1
Matagalpa
Page 1 of 6

Jalapa

(Away)
26 Jul
Managua FC
3 : 0
Jalapa
18 Jul
Jalapa
1 : 0
Walter Ferreti
12 Jul
Jalapa
3 : 2
Matagalpa
05 Jul
Matagalpa
3 : 1
Jalapa
07 May
Esteli
3 : 1
Jalapa
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Diriangen2
Sport Sebaco3
Matagalpa5
Jalapa4
Xilotepelt0
Esteli3
Rancho Santana2
Managua FC5
Semi-finals
Sport Sebaco-
Matagalpa-
Esteli-
Managua FC-
Final
TBD-
TBD-