Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Matagalpa vs Jalapa

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Copa Primera Estadio Municipal Carlos Fonseca, Matagalpa
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
24' Event
38' Event
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Matagalpa
15%
Draws
26%
Jalapa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Matagalpa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Jalapa come out ahead of Matagalpa on wins alone.
  • Matagalpa are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Jalapa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Jalapa, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Matagalpa Clean Sheet 18%
Jalapa Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matagalpa Jalapa
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 10 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.39 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Matagalpa
0:1
Jul 12, 2026 Copa Primera
Jalapa vs Matagalpa
3:2
Jul 5, 2026 Copa Primera
Matagalpa vs Jalapa
3:1
Apr 11, 2026 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Matagalpa
1:1
Feb 11, 2026 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Jalapa
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matagalpa 58 / 100
Jalapa 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matagalpa Jalapa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matagalpa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Matagalpa scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Jalapa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Matagalpa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Matagalpa VS Jalapa
0.63 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Matagalpa

(Home)
07 Sept
Matagalpa
0 : 3
Diriangen
04 Sept
Matagalpa
1 : 0
UNAN-Managua
30 Aug
Matagalpa
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
16 Aug
Matagalpa
1 : 0
San Marcos
Page 1 of 7

Jalapa

(Away)
20 Sept
Walter Ferreti
0 : 1
Jalapa
05 Sept
San Marcos
3 : 1
Jalapa
02 Sept
Jalapa
1 : 1
Rancho Santana
30 Aug
Diriangen
2 : 0
Jalapa
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Diriangen 2
Sport Sebaco 3
Matagalpa 5
Jalapa 4
Xilotepelt 0
Esteli 3
Rancho Santana 2
Managua FC 5
Semi-finals
Sport Sebaco -
Matagalpa -
Esteli -
Managua FC -
Final
TBD -
TBD -