Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Matagalpa vs San Marcos

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Guardado C.
32'
Vinicius Souza
71'
Davila L.

AI Match Summary

Matagalpa in this Liga Primera matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Matagalpa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Matagalpa
15%
Draws
42%
San Marcos
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Matagalpa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Matagalpa have won more games recently than San Marcos.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Matagalpa Clean Sheet 16%
San Marcos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matagalpa San Marcos
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.38 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.56 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs San Marcos
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Matagalpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Guardado C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

San Marcos Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matagalpa 31 / 100
San Marcos 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matagalpa San Marcos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Marcos Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marcos's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Matagalpa found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

Solid form: Matagalpa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Matagalpa VS San Marcos
1 Goals Scored 0.63
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Matagalpa

(Home)
07 Sept
Matagalpa
0 : 3
Diriangen
04 Sept
Matagalpa
1 : 0
UNAN-Managua
30 Aug
Matagalpa
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
16 Aug
Matagalpa
1 : 0
San Marcos
Page 1 of 7

San Marcos

(Away)
05 Sept
San Marcos
3 : 1
Jalapa
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
San Marcos
1 : 0
Walter Ferreti
23 Aug
Rancho Santana
1 : 2
San Marcos
16 Aug
Matagalpa
1 : 0
San Marcos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Managua FC 9 7 2 0 27:9 23
2 Diriangen 9 7 2 0 20:6 23
3 Esteli 9 5 3 1 17:6 18
4 UNAN-Managua 9 5 2 2 11:7 17
5 Sport Sebaco 9 3 2 4 9:17 11
6 San Marcos 9 3 1 5 8:14 10
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 4:16 9
8 Walter Ferreti 9 2 1 6 12:16 7
9 Rancho Santana 9 1 2 6 7:14 5
10 Jalapa 9 1 1 7 4:14 4
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)