Sport Picks
Match Events
44'
44'
Di Piazza M.
55'
55'
Gjonaj E.
60'
60'
Sosa F.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
52%
35%
13%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Matera
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Matera at 1.47 per game, Virtus Francavilla at 1.2.
- Win probability leans Matera's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Matera Clean Sheet 68%
Virtus Francavilla Clean Sheet 17%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Matera | Virtus Francavilla |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 10 |
| Draws | 10 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.47 | 1.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.85 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 13, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs Virtus Francavilla
2:2
Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Virtus Francavilla vs Matera
1:2
Feb 10, 2019 Serie C - Group C
Virtus Francavilla vs Matera
3:0
Oct 13, 2018 Serie C - Group C
Matera vs Virtus Francavilla
1:2
Apr 15, 2018 Serie C - Group C
Virtus Francavilla vs Matera
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Matera Compare
Top Goalscorer Di Piazza M.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42
Virtus Francavilla Compare
Top Goalscorer Gjonaj E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sosa F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Matera 95 / 100
Virtus Francavilla 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Matera Virtus Francavilla
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Matera Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Matera scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
Virtus Francavilla has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.
Recent resilience: Matera stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Virtus Francavilla
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.5
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Matera
(Home) 04 May
Matera
2 : 2 Nocerina
27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4 Matera
17 Apr
Matera
3 : 1 Angri
13 Apr
Matera
2 : 2 Virtus Francavilla
06 Apr
Costa Amalfi
4 : 2 Matera
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04 May
Matera
2 : 2 Nocerina
17 Apr
Matera
3 : 1 Angri
13 Apr
Matera
2 : 2 Virtus Francavilla
30 Mar
Matera
2 : 2 Brindisi
09 Mar
Matera
0 : 0 Palmese 1914
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Virtus Francavilla
(Away) 03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2 Sarnese
26 Apr
Pompei
4 : 1 Virtus Francavilla
19 Apr
Virtus Francavilla
0 : 3 Francavilla
12 Apr
Virtus Francavilla
0 : 2 Fidelis Andria
02 Apr
Afragolese
2 : 2 Virtus Francavilla
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26 Apr
Pompei
4 : 1 Virtus Francavilla
02 Apr
Afragolese
2 : 2 Virtus Francavilla
22 Mar
Acerrana
0 : 1 Virtus Francavilla
01 Mar
Heraclea
1 : 3 Virtus Francavilla
15 Feb
Citta di Fasano
0 : 3 Virtus Francavilla
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casarano | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 72:30 | 74 |
| 2 | Nocerina | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 64:27 | 70 |
| 3 | Martina Calcio | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 48:28 | 62 |
| 4 | Fidelis Andria | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 41:29 | 57 |
| 5 | Citta di Fasano | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 45:32 | 50 |
| 6 | Matera | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 51:47 | 49 |
| 7 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 41:34 | 47 |
| 8 | A.C.D. Nardo | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 47:45 | 47 |
| 9 | Ischia | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 39:45 | 45 |
| 10 | Palmese 1914 | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 41:45 | 42 |
| 11 | Gravina | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 43:46 | 42 |
| 12 | Francavilla | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 28:34 | 41 |
| 13 | Acerrana | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37:50 | 41 |
| 14 | ASD Ugento | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 33:51 | 37 |
| 15 | Manfredonia | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 33:51 | 35 |
| 16 | Brindisi | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 44:43 | 27 |
| 17 | Angri | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 35:69 | 26 |
| 18 | Costa Amalfi | 34 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 26:62 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Out)
