Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Matese vs Vigor Senigallia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Napoletano D.
65' Event
Lesi F.
82' Event
Vrioni A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2023/2024 game between Matese and Vigor Senigallia finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Matese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Matese
20%
Draws
61%
Vigor Senigallia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vigor Senigallia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vigor Senigallia come out ahead of Matese on wins alone.
  • Vigor Senigallia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Matese Clean Sheet 18%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matese Vigor Senigallia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 13
Draws 8 11
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 0.6 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Matese vs Vigor Senigallia
3:2
Sep 24, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs Matese
1:0
Apr 6, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs Matese
3:2
Nov 27, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Matese vs Vigor Senigallia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Matese Compare

Top Goalscorer Napoletano D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lesi F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Vigor Senigallia Compare

Top Goalscorer Vrioni A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Scheffer M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matese 10 / 100
Vigor Senigallia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matese Vigor Senigallia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vigor Senigallia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Vigor Senigallia conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Matese's goal record stands at 30% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Matese remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Vigor Senigallia
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Matese

(Home)
05 May
Matese
0 : 0
Calcio Chieti
28 Apr
Real Monterotondo
3 : 0
Matese
21 Apr
Matese
0 : 2
Termoli
14 Apr
United Riccione
2 : 0
Matese
07 Apr
Matese
2 : 1
Notaresco Calcio
Page 1 of 6

Vigor Senigallia

(Away)
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0
Fossombrone
20 Sept
Termoli
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
16 Sept
Lanciano FC
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
13 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
1 : 0
Giulianova
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Campobasso 34 20 10 4 55:29 70
2 Aquila Calcio 34 20 8 6 40:22 68
3 Avezzano 34 17 8 9 50:33 59
4 Sambenedettese 34 15 13 6 57:36 58
5 Roma City 34 14 10 10 56:37 52
6 Atletico Ascoli 34 12 14 8 39:33 50
7 Vigor Senigallia 34 13 10 11 57:50 49
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 12 10 35:34 48
9 Notaresco Calcio 34 11 12 11 37:38 45
10 Termoli 34 11 10 13 30:36 43
11 Fossombrone 34 8 17 9 28:28 41
12 AS Sora 34 10 11 13 37:37 41
13 Real Monterotondo 34 12 5 17 42:60 41
14 Tivoli Calcio 34 10 7 17 38:55 37
15 United Riccione 34 10 7 17 48:51 37
16 Fano 34 6 14 14 35:49 32
17 Vastogirardi 34 7 8 19 26:51 29
18 Matese 34 6 8 20 20:51 26
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2023/2024 (Play Out)