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Matonense vs EC Sao Bernardo

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 2023
Matonense Logo

Matonense

1 - 0
FT
EC Sao Bernardo Logo

EC Sao Bernardo

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A3 2023 game between Matonense and EC Sao Bernardo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Matonense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Matonense
15%
Draws
48%
EC Sao Bernardo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: EC Sao Bernardo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Matonense haven't matched EC Sao Bernardo's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Matonense a 37% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 91.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Matonense Clean Sheet 17%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matonense EC Sao Bernardo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 11
Draws 3 10
Losses 19 8
Goals Scored 1.43 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.40 1.40
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2024 Paulista A3
Matonense vs EC Sao Bernardo
1:2
Apr 8, 2023 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Matonense
2:1
Apr 2, 2023 Paulista A3
Matonense vs EC Sao Bernardo
1:0
Mar 18, 2023 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs Matonense
1:3
Jan 30, 2022 Paulista A3
Matonense vs EC Sao Bernardo
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matonense 84 / 100
EC Sao Bernardo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matonense EC Sao Bernardo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EC Sao Bernardo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Matonense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Matonense scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Matonense VS EC Sao Bernardo
1.63 Goals Scored 1.67
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.17
100% Over 1.5 83%
50% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Matonense

(Home)
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1
Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1
Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Matonense
0 : 0
Assisense
27 Jun
Assisense
0 : 1
Matonense
20 Jun
Matonense
2 : 1
Mogi Mirim
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EC Sao Bernardo

(Away)
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
01 Aug
Sao Caetano
1 : 4
EC Sao Bernardo
25 Jul
Sao Jose EC
2 : 1
EC Sao Bernardo
19 Jul
EC Sao Bernardo
3 : 1
Santo Andre
04 Apr
Marilia
3 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Capivariano 6 4 1 1 11:8 13
2 EC Sao Bernardo 6 3 1 2 9:4 10
3 Marilia 6 2 1 3 5:6 7
4 Matonense 6 1 1 4 5:12 4
Promotion - Paulista A3 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gremio Prudente 6 2 3 1 8:7 9
2 Sao Jose EC 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
3 Desportivo 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
4 Uniao Suzano 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
Promotion - Paulista A3 2023 (Play Offs)