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Matonense vs Red Bull Brasil

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A3 2023 game between Matonense and Red Bull Brasil finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Matonense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Matonense
30%
Draws
29%
Red Bull Brasil
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Matonense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Matonense come out ahead of Red Bull Brasil on wins alone.
  • Matonense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Matonense Clean Sheet 12%
Red Bull Brasil Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Matonense Red Bull Brasil
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 3 8
Losses 19 16
Goals Scored 1.48 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.94 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2023 Paulista A3
Matonense vs Red Bull Brasil
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Matonense 83 / 100
Red Bull Brasil 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Matonense Red Bull Brasil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matonense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Red Bull Brasil conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Matonense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Matonense's goal record stands at 58% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Matonense VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
2.5 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Matonense

(Home)
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1
Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1
Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Matonense
0 : 0
Assisense
27 Jun
Assisense
0 : 1
Matonense
20 Jun
Matonense
2 : 1
Mogi Mirim
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Red Bull Brasil

(Away)
18 Mar
Red Bull Brasil
5 : 0
Barretos EC
11 Mar
Gremio Prudente
2 : 0
Red Bull Brasil
08 Mar
Capivariano
1 : 1
Red Bull Brasil
04 Mar
Red Bull Brasil
2 : 3
EC Sao Bernardo
01 Mar
Red Bull Brasil
1 : 1
Itapirense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marilia 15 9 2 4 25:15 29
2 Sao Jose EC 15 8 3 4 13:12 27
3 Capivariano 15 7 6 2 28:11 27
4 Gremio Prudente 15 7 3 5 21:16 24
5 Desportivo 15 7 3 5 14:9 24
6 EC Sao Bernardo 15 7 1 7 17:16 22
7 Uniao Suzano 15 6 3 6 21:18 21
8 Matonense 15 6 2 7 21:18 20
9 Bandeirante 15 5 5 5 19:15 20
10 Red Bull Brasil 15 5 4 6 24:23 19
11 Rio Preto EC 15 5 4 6 15:21 19
12 Itapirense 15 4 7 4 11:17 19
13 Votuporanguense 15 4 5 6 14:19 17
14 Sertaozinho 15 5 1 9 15:26 16
15 Barretos EC 15 4 4 7 18:29 16
16 Audax-SP 15 3 3 9 8:19 12
Promotion - Paulista A3 2023 (Second stage)