Sport Picks
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J3 League Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto 
Match Events
58'
58'
Miki N.
Assist: Oshima H.
60'
60'
Sub
Sato R. In: Inoue A.
Out: Sato R.
60'
60'
Sub
Kaneko S. In: Sawazaki R.
Out: Kaneko S.
AI Match Summary
The J3 League game between Matsumoto Yamaga and Gainare Tottori finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gainare Tottori.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
15%
48%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gainare Tottori
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Matsumoto Yamaga haven't matched Gainare Tottori's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 18%
Gainare Tottori Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Matsumoto Yamaga | Gainare Tottori |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 19 |
| Draws | 5 | 1 |
| Losses | 11 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.71 | 1.6 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 3, 2026 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori
0:1
Aug 23, 2025 J3 League
Gainare Tottori vs Matsumoto Yamaga
0:0
May 18, 2025 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori
1:0
Oct 20, 2024 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori
3:4
Jun 8, 2024 J3 League
Gainare Tottori vs Matsumoto Yamaga
0:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Matsumoto Yamaga Compare
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Gainare Tottori Compare
Top Goalscorer Miki N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Matsumoto Yamaga 31 / 100
Gainare Tottori 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Matsumoto Yamaga Gainare Tottori
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Matsumoto Yamaga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Matsumoto Yamaga scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.
Gainare Tottori has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Matsumoto Yamaga stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Matsumoto Yamaga VS Gainare Tottori
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
38% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Matsumoto Yamaga
(Home) 03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
18 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 0 Matsumoto Yamaga
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
09 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
4 : 3 Shonan Bellmare
05 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 0 FC Osaka
Page 1 of 4
Gainare Tottori
(Away) 03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Gainare Tottori
2 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
26 Sept
Kanazawa
4 : 1 Gainare Tottori
19 Sept
Gainare Tottori
2 : 3 Nara Club
12 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
2 : 4 Gainare Tottori
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
26 Sept
Kanazawa
4 : 1 Gainare Tottori
12 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
2 : 4 Gainare Tottori
30 Aug
Reilac Shiga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
26 Aug
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3 Gainare Tottori
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 24:10 | 23 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19:11 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14:7 | 20 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 5 | SC Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18:12 | 18 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18:9 | 17 |
| 7 | Gifu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20:10 | 16 |
| 8 | Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:14 | 14 |
| 9 | Kumamoto | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 7:6 | 14 |
| 10 | Reilac Shiga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 14 |
| 11 | Nagano Parceiro | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:14 | 14 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12:19 | 13 |
| 13 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ryukyu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:14 | 11 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11:15 | 10 |
| 16 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12:18 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 | Fukushima United | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20:25 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12:20 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4:23 | 5 |
Promotion - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J3 League (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - J3 League (Relegation)
