Sport Picks
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J3 League Sunpro Alwin, Matsumoto 
AI Match Summary
Matsumoto Yamaga in this J3 League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Matsumoto Yamaga.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
20%
47%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kagoshima United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Kagoshima United lately — more wins on the board than Matsumoto Yamaga.
- Win probability leans Matsumoto Yamaga's way, sitting at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 16%
Kagoshima United Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Matsumoto Yamaga | Kagoshima United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 20 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 11 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.67 | 1.66 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.33 | 0.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 2, 2025 J3 League
Kagoshima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga
3:2
Jun 21, 2025 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United
1:1
Aug 19, 2023 J3 League
Kagoshima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga
0:2
May 28, 2023 J3 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United
2:4
Aug 14, 2022 J3 League
Kagoshima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga
4:2
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Matsumoto Yamaga 41 / 100
Kagoshima United 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Matsumoto Yamaga Kagoshima United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 4.20 goals per match.
Matsumoto Yamaga scored in 70% of their last 27 games.
Kagoshima United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.
Matsumoto Yamaga went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Matsumoto Yamaga VS Kagoshima United
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Matsumoto Yamaga
(Home) 03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Tochigi SC
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
18 Sept
Kumamoto
0 : 0 Matsumoto Yamaga
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 1 Gainare Tottori
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0 Albirex Niigata
13 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 3 SC Sagamihara
09 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
4 : 3 Shonan Bellmare
05 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 0 FC Osaka
Page 1 of 4
Kagoshima United
(Away) 07 Oct
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 0 Kagoshima United
04 Oct
Kagoshima United
3 : 2 Fukushima United
26 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 1 Kagoshima United
19 Sept
Kagoshima United
3 : 1 Tochigi SC
13 Sept
Reilac Shiga
1 : 2 Kagoshima United
Page 1 of 6
07 Oct
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 0 Kagoshima United
26 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 1 Kagoshima United
13 Sept
Reilac Shiga
1 : 2 Kagoshima United
29 Aug
Kamatamare Sanuki
3 : 4 Kagoshima United
26 Aug
Albirex Niigata
0 : 4 Kagoshima United
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19:10 | 23 |
| 2 | Ehime | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:10 | 20 |
| 3 | Nara Club | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 4 | SC Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18:12 | 18 |
| 5 | FC Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18:9 | 17 |
| 6 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | 17 |
| 7 | Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:14 | 14 |
| 8 | Kumamoto | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7:4 | 14 |
| 9 | Reilac Shiga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 14 |
| 10 | Nagano Parceiro | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:14 | 14 |
| 11 | Gifu | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19:10 | 13 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:18 | 13 |
| 13 | Ryukyu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:14 | 11 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:14 | 10 |
| 15 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12:18 | 10 |
| 16 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 17 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 18 | Fukushima United | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20:25 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12:20 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4:23 | 5 |
Promotion - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J3 League (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - J3 League (Relegation)
