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Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Cheikha Ould Boidiya

Match Events

34'

Costa L.

45'

Soueid M.

46'

Sub

Moreira S. In: Pina W.

Out: Moreira S.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mauritania host Cape Verde in the Africa Cup of Nations 2025. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Mauritania at 0.38 goals for, 1.38 against; Cape Verde at 1.63 for, 1.25 against. Past meetings favor Mauritania slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Nov 19, 2024, ending 1:0. The numbers (0.81 xG vs 1.50) point toward Cape Verde. Cape Verde in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

Mauritania

33%

Draws

40%

Cape Verde

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Cape Verde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Cape Verde has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Mauritania.
Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Cape Verde.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Africa Cup of Nations 2025 provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Mauritania Clean Sheet 16%

Cape Verde Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mauritania	Cape Verde
Matches Played	26	30
Wins	6	13
Draws	10	7
Losses	10	10
Goals Scored	0.38	1.63
Goals Conceded	1.38	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	0.38	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Mauritania vs Cape Verde

Possession: 49% - 47% Cards: 3 - 0

1:0

Sep 10, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Cape Verde vs Mauritania

Possession: 55% - 42% Cards: 2 - 1

2:0

Jan 29, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Cape Verde vs Mauritania

Possession: 43% - 42% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

Aug 3, 2019 African Nations Championship

Mauritania vs Cape Verde

Possession: 46% - 51% Cards: 0 - 2

2:1

Jul 27, 2019 African Nations Championship

Cape Verde vs Mauritania

Possession: 53% - 56% Cards: 3 - 3

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mauritania Compare

Top Goalscorer Soueid M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.29

Avg xA / game 0.19

Cape Verde Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mauritania 28 / 100

Cape Verde 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mauritania Cape Verde

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAP Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mauritania scored in 50% of their last 26 games.

Cape Verde let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Mauritania went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Cape Verde lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mauritania VS Cape Verde

0.38 Goals Scored 1.63

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25

63% Over 1.5 75%

25% Over 2.5 75%

13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Comoros	6	3	3	0	7:4	12
2	Tunisia	6	3	1	2	7:6	10
3	Gambia	6	2	2	2	6:6	8
4	Madagascar	6	0	2	4	4:8	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Morocco	6	6	0	0	26:2	18
2	Gabon	6	3	1	2	7:9	10
3	Lesotho	6	1	1	4	2:13	4
4	Central Africa	6	1	0	5	3:14	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Egypt	6	4	2	0	12:2	14
2	Botswana	6	2	2	2	4:7	8
3	Mauritania	6	2	1	3	3:6	7
4	Cape Verde	6	1	1	4	3:7	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nigeria	6	3	2	1	9:3	11
2	Benin	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
3	Rwanda	6	2	2	2	5:7	8
4	Libya	6	1	2	3	3:7	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Algeria	6	5	1	0	16:2	16
2	Equatorial Guinea	6	2	2	2	5:8	8
3	Togo	6	1	2	3	7:10	5
4	Liberia	6	1	1	4	4:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Angola	6	4	2	0	7:2	14
2	Sudan	6	2	2	2	4:6	8
3	Niger	6	2	1	3	7:6	7
4	Ghana	6	0	3	3	3:7	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zambia	6	4	1	1	7:4	13
2	Ivory Coast	6	4	0	2	12:3	12
3	Sierra Leone	6	1	2	3	5:10	5
4	Chad	6	0	3	3	1:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	D.R. Congo	6	4	0	2	7:3	12
2	Tanzania	6	3	1	2	5:4	10
3	Guinea	6	3	0	3	9:5	9
4	Ethiopia	6	1	1	4	3:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mali	6	4	2	0	10:1	14
2	Mozambique	6	3	2	1	9:5	11
3	Guinea Bissau	6	1	2	3	4:6	5
4	Eswatini	6	0	2	4	2:13	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cameroon	6	4	2	0	8:2	14
2	Zimbabwe	6	2	3	1	6:4	9
3	Kenya	6	1	3	2	4:7	6
4	Namibia	6	0	2	4	2:7	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Africa	6	4	2	0	16:5	14
2	Uganda	6	4	1	1	8:5	13
3	Congo	6	1	1	4	4:12	4
4	South Sudan	6	1	0	5	6:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Senegal	6	5	1	0	10:1	16
2	Burkina Faso	6	3	1	2	10:7	10
3	Burundi	6	1	1	4	4:11	4
4	Malawi	6	1	1	4	6:11	4