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Mauritius vs Sri Lanka - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International Cote d'Or National Sports Complex, St Pierre
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Match Events

28' Event
De Robillard S.
(Penalty)
33' Event
Francois W.
59' Event
Francois A.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between Mauritius and Sri Lanka finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mauritius.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Mauritius
20%
Draws
56%
Sri Lanka
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sri Lanka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Sri Lanka carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Sri Lanka's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.2%
Mauritius Clean Sheet 18%
Sri Lanka Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mauritius Sri Lanka
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 5 12
Draws 8 5
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.68 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2026 Friendly International
Mauritius vs Sri Lanka
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mauritius Compare

Top Goalscorer Francois W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Francois A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Sri Lanka Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mauritius 28 / 100
Sri Lanka 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mauritius Sri Lanka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sri Lanka Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sri Lanka has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Mauritius has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Mauritius scored in 39% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mauritius VS Sri Lanka
0.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mauritius

(Home)
05 Oct
Mauritius
2 : 3
Sri Lanka
02 Oct
Mauritius
3 : 0
Sri Lanka
31 Mar
Mauritius
0 : 1
Somalia
27 Mar
Somalia
0 : 0
Mauritius
13 Oct
Mauritius
0 : 0
Libya
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Sri Lanka

(Away)
05 Oct
Mauritius
2 : 3
Sri Lanka
02 Oct
Mauritius
3 : 0
Sri Lanka
30 Sept
Seychelles
0 : 2
Sri Lanka
27 Sept
Seychelles
0 : 3
Sri Lanka
08 Jun
Sri Lanka
4 : 1
Bhutan
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