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Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ukraine Ukraine

Ukrainian Cup
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
1 - 2
09:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Kogut I.
76' Event
Romanyuk Y.
87' Event
Dubko V.

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Ukrainian Cup. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Mayak Sarny at 1.67 goals for, 1 against; FC Kharkiv at 1.86 for, 1.28 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (1.65 - 1.17) back Mayak Sarny to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Mayak Sarny
15%
Draws
46%
FC Kharkiv
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Kharkiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • FC Kharkiv have won more games recently than Mayak Sarny.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Mayak Sarny taking it.
  • FC Kharkiv arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Mayak Sarny Clean Sheet 20%
FC Kharkiv Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mayak Sarny FC Kharkiv
Matches Played 3 29
Wins 2 12
Draws 0 6
Losses 1 11
Goals Scored 1.67 1.86
Goals Conceded 1 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.65 1.17
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mayak Sarny Compare

Top Goalscorer Romanyuk Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.27
Avg xA / game 0.82

FC Kharkiv Compare

Top Goalscorer Kogut I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dubko V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.65

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mayak Sarny 42 / 100
FC Kharkiv 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mayak Sarny FC Kharkiv

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mayak Sarny scored in 67% of their last 3 outings.

FC Kharkiv has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Mayak Sarny went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: FC Kharkiv registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mayak Sarny VS FC Kharkiv
1.67 Goals Scored 2
0.33 Goals Conceded 1.63
33% Over 1.5 75%
33% Over 2.5 63%
33% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mayak Sarny

(Home)
08 Sept
Bazys Kochubiyivka
1 : 4
Mayak Sarny
22 Aug
Mayak Sarny
1 : 0
SC Poltava
22 Aug
Mayak Sarny
0 : 2
Metalist Kharkiv

FC Kharkiv

(Away)
24 Oct
Epitsentr
1 : 2
FC Kharkiv
19 Oct
FC Kharkiv
2 : 1
Livyi Bereg
10 Oct
Ch. Odesa
1 : 2
FC Kharkiv
03 Oct
FC Kharkiv
1 : 2
Polissya Zhytomyr
19 Sept
FC Kharkiv
2 : 0
Bukovyna
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Ch. Odesa 0
FC Vilkhivtsi 1
TBD -
Shakhtar -
Nyva Vinnytsya 3
Rukh Lviv 2
Dynamo Kyiv -
TBD -
Bukovyna 4
Nyva Ternopil 0
TBD -
LNZ Cherkasy -
FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1
Victoria 3
Penuel Kryvyi Rih 0
Metalist Kharkiv 1
Kolos Polonne 1
Trostyanets 2
LSTM Lutsk 1
FC Chernihiv 2
Karbon Cherkasy 1
Pokuttia Kolomyia 0
Epitsentr 2
To4ka Odessa 1
TBD -
Polissya Zhytomyr -
Lozova 1
Kudrivka 6
Novyi Rozdil 2
Atlet Kiev 1
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka 2
Vilkhivtsi Ivano Frankivsk 1
Mayak Sarny 1
SC Poltava 0
Druzhba-Kozaky 3
Bazys Kochubiyivka 5
Reshetylivka 1
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 4
FC Kharkiv 9
Kalynivka 0
Dinaz Vyshgorod 0
Fenix Mariupol 6
Skala 1911 0
Zorya 6
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya 1
Olympia Savyntsi 2
Kryvbas 3
Rokyta 0
Kolos Kovalivka 3
UCSA 0
Karpaty Lviv 2
Obolon 0
Lokomotyv Kyiv 1
Probiy Horodenka 3
Bratslav Vinnytsia 0
Oleksandriya 2
Rebel Kyiv 0
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 4
Dnister Zalishchyky 0
Livyi Bereg 3
Kulikiv 2
Palmira Odesa 1
Veres Rivne 4
Inhulets 1
1/16-finals
FC Vilkhivtsi 0
Shakhtar 3
Nyva Vinnytsya 0
Dynamo Kyiv 1
Bukovyna 0
LNZ Cherkasy 1
Victoria 0
Metalist Kharkiv 1
Trostyanets 2
FC Chernihiv 4
Karbon Cherkasy 0
Epitsentr 3
Polissya Zhytomyr 2
Kudrivka 0
Novyi Rozdil 3
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka 1
Mayak Sarny 4
Bazys Kochubiyivka 1
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 0
FC Kharkiv 2
Fenix Mariupol 0
Zorya 2
Olympia Savyntsi 0
Kryvbas 2
Kolos Kovalivka 2
Karpaty Lviv 3
Probiy Horodenka 1
Oleksandriya 2
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1
Livyi Bereg 2
Kulikiv 0
Veres Rivne 1
1/8-finals
Shakhtar 3
Dynamo Kyiv 0
LNZ Cherkasy -
Metalist Kharkiv -
FC Chernihiv -
Epitsentr -
Polissya Zhytomyr -
Novyi Rozdil -
Mayak Sarny -
FC Kharkiv -
Zorya -
Kryvbas -
Karpaty Lviv -
Oleksandriya -
Livyi Bereg 0
Veres Rivne 1
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -