Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mazandaran vs Kara Gostar Shabestar

Iran Iran

Azadegan League Vatani Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mazandaran play Kara Gostar Shabestar in the Azadegan League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mazandaran averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.57 conceded. Kara Gostar Shabestar averaged 0.5 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, Mazandaran won 1, Kara Gostar Shabestar won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 15, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Mazandaran and 0.56 for Kara Gostar Shabestar. This points to a Mazandaran double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Mazandaran
27%
Draws
24%
Kara Gostar Shabestar
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Mazandaran

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Mazandaran picked up more points recently compared to Kara Gostar Shabestar.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Over 3.5 Goals 17%
Over 4.5 Goals 8%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Mazandaran Clean Sheet 30%
Kara Gostar Shabestar Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 43%
Second Half Goal 46%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mazandaran Kara Gostar Shabestar
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 8
Draws 7 8
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.5 0.5
Goals Conceded 0.57 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.25 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 15, 2026 Azadegan League
Kara Gostar Shabestar vs Mazandaran
1:1
Nov 14, 2025 Azadegan League
Mazandaran vs Kara Gostar Shabestar
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mazandaran Compare

Top Goalscorer Mehr M. S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Kara Gostar Shabestar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mazandaran 50 / 100
Kara Gostar Shabestar 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mazandaran Kara Gostar Shabestar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mazandaran or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +27.4%
4.55
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mazandaran attacking → ← attacking Kara Gostar Shabestar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mazandaran scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Kara Gostar Shabestar let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Mazandaran went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Kara Gostar Shabestar lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 32
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mazandaran32199446:1566
2Mes Shahr Babak321810439:1464
3Pars Janoobi Jam321412638:2154
4Sanat Naft321412634:2154
5Saipa321411727:1853
6Havadar SC321116530:1849
7Fard321015724:1445
8Naft Bandar Abbas32917623:1844
9Mes Kerman32915820:1742
10Ario Eslamshahr32815916:1639
11Besat Kermanshah329111224:2738
12Niroye Zamini328111327:2835
13Naft Gachsaran327131223:3734
14Kara Gostar Shabestar32891516:3433
15Shenavarsazi Qeshm327101519:3531
16Shahrdari Noshahr325141317:2729
17Navad Urmia324121616:4324
18Damash Gilan322121816:5218