Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mazatlan FC W vs Toluca W

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Women 2025/2026 Estadio El Encanto, Mazatlan
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Lopez A.
10' Event
Le Sommer E.
26' Event
Garcia D.

AI Match Summary

Toluca W in this Liga MX Women 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toluca W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Mazatlan FC W
39%
Draws
31%
Toluca W
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Toluca W have won more games recently than Mazatlan FC W.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga MX Women 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Toluca W have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Mazatlan FC W Clean Sheet 11%
Toluca W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mazatlan FC W Toluca W
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 15
Draws 5 7
Losses 20 7
Goals Scored 0.88 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Liga MX Women
Mazatlan FC W vs Toluca W
2:3
Oct 4, 2025 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Mazatlan FC W
6:0
Jan 9, 2025 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Mazatlan FC W
5:0
Oct 18, 2024 Liga MX Women
Mazatlan FC W vs Toluca W
2:5
Jan 26, 2024 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Mazatlan FC W
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mazatlan FC W Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Garcia D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Toluca W Compare

Top Goalscorer Le Sommer E.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mazatlan FC W 29 / 100
Toluca W 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mazatlan FC W Toluca W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAZ Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.80 goals as a typical output.

Toluca W has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Mazatlan FC W's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Difficult form: Toluca W registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mazatlan FC W VS Toluca W
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Mazatlan FC W

(Home)
25 Apr
Club Tijuana W
2 : 0
Mazatlan FC W
06 Apr
Mazatlan FC W
0 : 1
Atletico San Luis W
03 Apr
Guadalajara Chivas W
1 : 0
Mazatlan FC W
28 Mar
Mazatlan FC W
2 : 3
Toluca W
21 Mar
Cruz Azul W
1 : 0
Mazatlan FC W
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Toluca W

(Away)
10 May
Club America W
4 : 3
Toluca W
08 May
Toluca W
1 : 7
Club America W
04 May
Tigres UANL W
1 : 2
Toluca W
01 May
Toluca W
2 : 1
Tigres UANL W
25 Apr
Guadalajara Chivas W
1 : 1
Toluca W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Club America W17133144:1342
2Monterrey W17124139:840
3Tigres UANL W17114241:1337
4Pachuca W17113346:1536
5Guadalajara Chivas W1797127:1334
6Toluca W17103438:2633
7Cruz Azul W1794438:1931
8Juarez W1785427:1829
9Club Tijuana W1784531:2328
10UNAM Pumas W1764723:2922
11Atletico San Luis W1763820:3221
12Mazatlan FC W1753919:2718
13Club Leon W1744932:3516
14Atlas W17331122:4012
15Puebla W17321211:4611
16Santos Laguna W17231214:299
17Queretaro W17121411:465
18Necaxa W17111511:624
Promotion - Liga MX Women 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)