Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Sokoine Stadium

Mtibwa Sugar

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mbeya City play Mtibwa Sugar in the Ligi Kuu Bara. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mbeya City averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Mtibwa Sugar averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. In past meetings, Mbeya City won 3, Mtibwa Sugar won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 13, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Mbeya City and 1.06 for Mtibwa Sugar. This points to a Mbeya City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Mbeya City

27%

Draws

31%

Mtibwa Sugar

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Mbeya City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Mbeya City picked up more points recently compared to Mtibwa Sugar.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%

Mbeya City Clean Sheet 22%

Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 62%

Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mbeya City	Mtibwa Sugar
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	7	6
Draws	9	9
Losses	14	15
Goals Scored	0.87	0.83
Goals Conceded	1.47	1.6
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 13, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mbeya City vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 48% - 42% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

Jan 21, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbeya City

Possession: 50% - 54% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Mar 13, 2025 Federation Cup

Mbeya City vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 55% - 52% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Jan 22, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mbeya City vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 47% - 52% Cards: 2 - 1

1:0

Oct 2, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs Mbeya City

Possession: 50% - 51% Cards: 0 - 4

2:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbeya City 42 / 100

Mtibwa Sugar 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mbeya City Mtibwa Sugar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mbeya City or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mbeya City attacking → ← attacking Mtibwa Sugar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbeya City scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Mtibwa Sugar let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Mbeya City went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Mtibwa Sugar lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 27

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	23	6	1	71:9	75
2	Simba	30	22	7	1	54:11	73
3	Azam	30	18	10	2	46:12	64
4	Singida Black Stars	30	15	5	10	47:35	50
5	TRA United	30	11	10	9	33:28	43
6	JKT Tanzania	30	10	12	8	30:33	42
7	Pamba	30	9	9	12	32:35	36
8	Coastal Union	30	9	9	12	31:37	36
9	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	11	11	25:36	35
10	Namungo	30	7	13	10	25:32	34
11	Mashujaa	30	7	12	11	15:27	33
12	Fountain Gate	30	9	6	15	25:44	33
13	Tanzania Prisons	30	9	5	16	23:41	32
14	Mbeya City	30	7	9	14	24:41	30
15	Mtibwa Sugar	30	6	9	15	25:48	27
16	Kinondoni MC	30	2	3	25	16:53	9