Sport Picks
Match Events
44'
44'
Shemvuni J.
AI Match Summary
The Ligi Kuu Bara 2020/2021 game between Mbeya City and Mwadui finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mbeya City.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mbeya City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Mbeya City come out ahead of Mwadui on wins alone.
- 85% — that's where the model lands on Mbeya City taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Mwadui here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Mbeya City Clean Sheet 68%
Mwadui Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mbeya City | Mwadui |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 4 |
| Draws | 9 | 4 |
| Losses | 12 | 22 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 2.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.92 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 12, 2021 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Mwadui
1:0
Oct 20, 2020 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mwadui vs Mbeya City
2:1
Mar 7, 2020 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mwadui vs Mbeya City
1:0
Nov 26, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Mwadui
1:2
Mar 10, 2019 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mwadui vs Mbeya City
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mbeya City Compare
Top Goalscorer Shemvuni J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46
Mwadui Compare
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mbeya City 95 / 100
Mwadui 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mbeya City Mwadui
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mbeya City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Mwadui has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.
Mwadui lost 5 of their last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Mbeya City scored in 61% of their last 31 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Mbeya City VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.88 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Mbeya City
(Home) 04 Sept
TRA United
0 : 0 Mbeya City
28 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2 Mbeya City
23 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 1 Mashujaa
19 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 0 Dodoma Jiji
14 Aug
Mbeya City
0 : 1 Geita Gold
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23 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 1 Mashujaa
19 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 0 Dodoma Jiji
14 Aug
Mbeya City
0 : 1 Geita Gold
05 Jul
Mbeya City
2 : 0 Tanzania Prisons
30 Jun
Mbeya City
0 : 0 TRA United
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Mwadui
(Away) 18 Jul
Polisi Tanzania
1 : 0 Mwadui
15 Jul
Coastal Union
5 : 0 Mwadui
20 Jun
Young Africans
3 : 2 Mwadui
17 Jun
Mwadui
1 : 3 Mtibwa Sugar
18 May
Mwadui
0 : 1 Tanzania Prisons
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18 Jul
Polisi Tanzania
1 : 0 Mwadui
15 Jul
Coastal Union
5 : 0 Mwadui
20 Jun
Young Africans
3 : 2 Mwadui
27 Apr
Gwambina
1 : 2 Mwadui
21 Apr
Ruvu Shooting
5 : 1 Mwadui
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 34 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 78:14 | 83 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 52:21 | 74 |
| 3 | Azam | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 50:22 | 68 |
| 4 | Biashara Mara United | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 28:32 | 50 |
| 5 | Kinondoni MC | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 39:27 | 48 |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 34 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 29:27 | 45 |
| 7 | Tanzania Prisons | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 25:25 | 44 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:31 | 44 |
| 9 | Namungo | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 24:31 | 43 |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 30:33 | 42 |
| 11 | Ruvu Shooting | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 34:38 | 41 |
| 12 | Kagera Sugar | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 34:38 | 40 |
| 13 | Coastal Union | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 29:46 | 40 |
| 14 | Mtibwa Sugar | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 21:31 | 39 |
| 15 | JKT Tanzania | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 34:47 | 39 |
| 16 | Gwambina | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 29:37 | 35 |
| 17 | Singida Black Stars | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 22:41 | 35 |
| 18 | Mwadui | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 24:69 | 19 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2021/2022 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2021/2022 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2020/2021 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2020/2021 (Relegation)
