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Mbour vs ASC Jaraaf

Senegal Senegal

Ligue 1 2025/2026
Mbour Logo

Mbour

0 - 2
FT
ASC Jaraaf Logo

ASC Jaraaf

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Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Mbour and ASC Jaraaf finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward ASC Jaraaf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Mbour
35%
Draws
42%
ASC Jaraaf
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: ASC Jaraaf

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • ASC Jaraaf carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61.4%
Mbour Clean Sheet 20%
ASC Jaraaf Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mbour ASC Jaraaf
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 9
Draws 18 14
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 0.6 0.7
Goals Conceded 0.7 0.53
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 Ligue 1
Mbour vs ASC Jaraaf
0:2
Nov 29, 2025 Ligue 1
ASC Jaraaf vs Mbour
0:0
May 13, 2024 Ligue 1
Mbour vs ASC Jaraaf
0:2
Dec 30, 2023 Ligue 1
ASC Jaraaf vs Mbour
2:2
Aug 6, 2023 Ligue 1
ASC Jaraaf vs Mbour
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbour 32 / 100
ASC Jaraaf 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mbour ASC Jaraaf

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ASC Jaraaf Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Mbour stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Mbour's goal record stands at 43% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

ASC Jaraaf's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mbour VS ASC Jaraaf
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mbour

(Home)
04 Jun
US Goree
0 : 0
Mbour
22 May
Mbour
0 : 2
Guediawaye
17 May
Teungueth
2 : 0
Mbour
13 May
Dakar Sacre-Coeur
0 : 2
Mbour
10 May
Mbour
1 : 1
Wally Daan
Page 1 of 6

ASC Jaraaf

(Away)
04 Jun
AS Camberene
0 : 2
ASC Jaraaf
22 May
ASC Jaraaf
0 : 0
Casa
17 May
ASC Jaraaf
3 : 0
Dakar Sacre-Coeur
13 May
Pikine
0 : 0
ASC Jaraaf
10 May
ASC Jaraaf
0 : 0
Sonacos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Teungueth 30 13 15 2 21:6 54
2 AJEL 30 15 9 6 27:19 54
3 Generation Foot 30 13 9 8 37:22 48
4 US Goree 30 11 15 4 29:14 48
5 Wally Daan 30 10 14 6 29:24 44
6 Ouakam 30 8 18 4 23:16 42
7 ASC Jaraaf 30 9 14 7 21:16 41
8 Casa 30 7 19 4 29:20 40
9 Pikine 30 7 13 10 20:19 34
10 Mbour 30 5 18 7 18:21 33
11 ASC HLM 30 5 18 7 18:24 33
12 Dakar Sacre-Coeur 30 5 16 9 24:37 31
13 Guediawaye 30 7 8 15 29:34 28
14 Linguere 30 3 16 11 22:36 25
15 Sonacos 30 4 13 13 18:39 25
16 AS Camberene 30 3 15 12 16:34 24
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)