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Mbour vs Guediawaye

Senegal Senegal

Ligue 1 2025/2026
Mbour Logo

Mbour

0 - 2
FT
Guediawaye Logo

Guediawaye

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Guediawaye in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guediawaye.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Mbour
30%
Draws
31%
Guediawaye
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mbour

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Guediawaye have won more games recently than Mbour.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Mbour Clean Sheet 20%
Guediawaye Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mbour Guediawaye
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 7
Draws 18 8
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 0.6 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Ligue 1
Mbour vs Guediawaye
0:2
Feb 8, 2026 Ligue 1
Guediawaye vs Mbour
0:0
Mar 28, 2024 Ligue 1
Guediawaye vs Mbour
3:1
Nov 26, 2023 Ligue 1
Mbour vs Guediawaye
1:1
Mar 19, 2023 Ligue 1
Guediawaye vs Mbour
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbour 31 / 100
Guediawaye 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mbour Guediawaye

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mbour Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guediawaye's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Mbour has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Guediawaye has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mbour VS Guediawaye
0.75 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mbour

(Home)
04 Jun
US Goree
0 : 0
Mbour
22 May
Mbour
0 : 2
Guediawaye
17 May
Teungueth
2 : 0
Mbour
13 May
Dakar Sacre-Coeur
0 : 2
Mbour
10 May
Mbour
1 : 1
Wally Daan
Page 1 of 6

Guediawaye

(Away)
04 Jun
Guediawaye
0 : 1
Teungueth
22 May
Mbour
0 : 2
Guediawaye
17 May
Guediawaye
2 : 3
Wally Daan
13 May
AJEL
1 : 0
Guediawaye
10 May
Guediawaye
1 : 1
Ouakam
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Teungueth 30 13 15 2 21:6 54
2 AJEL 30 15 9 6 27:19 54
3 Generation Foot 30 13 9 8 37:22 48
4 US Goree 30 11 15 4 29:14 48
5 Wally Daan 30 10 14 6 29:24 44
6 Ouakam 30 8 18 4 23:16 42
7 ASC Jaraaf 30 9 14 7 21:16 41
8 Casa 30 7 19 4 29:20 40
9 Pikine 30 7 13 10 20:19 34
10 Mbour 30 5 18 7 18:21 33
11 ASC HLM 30 5 18 7 18:24 33
12 Dakar Sacre-Coeur 30 5 16 9 24:37 31
13 Guediawaye 30 7 8 15 29:34 28
14 Linguere 30 3 16 11 22:36 25
15 Sonacos 30 4 13 13 18:39 25
16 AS Camberene 30 3 15 12 16:34 24
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)