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MCF vs Nzoia Sugar

Kenya Kenya

Super League
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AI Match Summary

The Super League game between MCF and Nzoia Sugar finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward MCF.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
MCF
33%
Draws
27%
Nzoia Sugar
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: MCF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • MCF haven't matched Nzoia Sugar's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans MCF's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.2%
MCF Clean Sheet 20%
Nzoia Sugar Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric MCF Nzoia Sugar
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 0.38 1.13
Goals Conceded 1 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Super League
MCF vs Nzoia Sugar
1:0
Dec 3, 2025 Super League
Nzoia Sugar vs MCF
0:0
Apr 12, 2025 Super League
MCF vs Nzoia Sugar
4:0
Feb 5, 2025 Super League
Nzoia Sugar vs MCF
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MCF 40 / 100
Nzoia Sugar 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
MCF Nzoia Sugar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MCF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Nzoia Sugar conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: MCF remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Nzoia Sugar lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

MCF VS Nzoia Sugar
0.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

MCF

(Home)
13 Jun
MCF
0 : 3
Fortune Sacco
07 Jun
Kibera
1 : 2
MCF
01 Jun
MCF
2 : 0
Mwatate United
27 May
Migori
2 : 1
MCF
23 May
Nairobi City Stars
0 : 0
MCF
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Nzoia Sugar

(Away)
13 Jun
Nzoia Sugar
1 : 0
Kibera
07 Jun
Mombasa United
1 : 0
Nzoia Sugar
01 Jun
Nzoia Sugar
3 : 1
Fortune Sacco
27 May
Talanta FC
2 : 0
Nzoia Sugar
24 May
Nzoia Sugar
0 : 1
Naivas FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Migori38256757:2981
23K FC38238762:2677
3Mombasa United382441051:3276
4Equity Bank382111656:2874
5MOFA381616651:3064
6Fortune Sacco381891161:4163
7Naivas FC3817101147:3061
8Talanta FC381691353:4157
9Kibera381581532:3353
10Soy United3814101431:2752
11Nzoia Sugar3812141237:3650
12Gucha Stars381281835:4144
13Luanda Villa381271930:5143
14Kabati381091932:5239
15Kisumu All-Stars381091923:4739
16Nairobi City Stars389121732:4439
17Darajani Gogo381082027:4838
18MCF389101924:4234
19Vihiga United38992029:5530
20Mwatate United38672527:6425
Promotion - Premier League 2026/2027 (Main)