Sport Picks
Melbourne City vs Macarthur FC
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 AAMI Park, Melbourne 
Match Events
17'
17'
Deli F.
25'
25'
Behich A.
26'
26'
Sub
Ji Dong-Won In: Sawyer H.
Out: Ji Dong-Won
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this A-League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Melbourne City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
67%
/ Medium Confidence
- Macarthur FC have won more games recently than Melbourne City.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Melbourne City taking it.
- Regular A-League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Melbourne City Clean Sheet 20%
Macarthur FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Melbourne City | Macarthur FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 12 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 2.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 2.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 24, 2026 A-League
Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City
6:2
Dec 23, 2025 A-League
Melbourne City vs Macarthur FC
1:1
Mar 7, 2025 A-League
Melbourne City vs Macarthur FC
2:0
Jan 25, 2025 A-League
Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City
1:0
Mar 1, 2024 A-League
Macarthur FC vs Melbourne City
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Melbourne City Compare
Top Goalscorer Behich A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Macarthur FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Duran R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Melbourne City 42 / 100
Macarthur FC 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Melbourne City Macarthur FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Macarthur FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.
Melbourne City scored in 77% of their last 30 games.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Melbourne City stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Melbourne City VS Macarthur FC
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 88%
Recent Form & Match History
Melbourne City
(Home) 02 May
Auckland FC
2 : 1 Melbourne City
26 Apr
Melbourne City
1 : 2 Adelaide Utd
18 Apr
Brisbane Roar
2 : 3 Melbourne City
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
07 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 1 Central Coast
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Melbourne City
1 : 2 Adelaide Utd
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
07 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 1 Central Coast
04 Apr
Melbourne City
3 : 0 Western Sydney Wanderers
03 Mar
Melbourne City
1 : 1 Buriram United F.C.
Page 1 of 3
Macarthur FC
(Away) 24 Apr
Macarthur FC
4 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
19 Apr
Adelaide Utd
3 : 1 Macarthur FC
12 Apr
Perth Glory
3 : 1 Macarthur FC
02 Apr
Macarthur FC
3 : 2 Newcastle Jets
21 Mar
Auckland FC
1 : 2 Macarthur FC
Page 1 of 6
19 Apr
Adelaide Utd
3 : 1 Macarthur FC
12 Apr
Perth Glory
3 : 1 Macarthur FC
21 Mar
Auckland FC
1 : 2 Macarthur FC
15 Mar
Melbourne Victory
4 : 1 Macarthur FC
22 Feb
Newcastle Jets
1 : 0 Macarthur FC
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)