Sport Picks
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 AAMI Park, Melbourne 
Match Events
20'
20'
Mata J.
32'
32'
Caputo M.
Assist: Younis M.
58'
58'
Sub
Lopane A. In: Rahmani K.
Out: Lopane A.
AI Match Summary
The A-League 2025/2026 game between Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Melbourne Victory.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
15%
58%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Melbourne Victory
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Melbourne Victory come out ahead of Melbourne City on wins alone.
- 58% — that's where the model lands on Melbourne Victory taking it.
- Regular A-League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Melbourne City Clean Sheet 17%
Melbourne Victory Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Melbourne City | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 15 |
| Draws | 9 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.24 | 1.73 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 21, 2026 A-League
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
1:3
Dec 20, 2025 A-League
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
0:1
Nov 8, 2025 A-League
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
0:2
May 31, 2025 A-League
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
1:0
Feb 22, 2025 A-League
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Melbourne City Compare
Top Goalscorer Caputo M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Melbourne Victory Compare
Top Goalscorer Mata J.
2 Goals Assists Leader Clarismario
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Melbourne City 15 / 100
Melbourne Victory 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Melbourne City Melbourne Victory
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Melbourne Victory Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Melbourne City scored in 73% of their last 33 outings.
Melbourne Victory let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.
Melbourne City has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Melbourne City VS Melbourne Victory
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Melbourne City
(Home) 25 Sept
Oakleigh Cannons
0 : 2 Melbourne City
11 Aug
Queensland Lions
2 : 0 Melbourne City
07 Aug
Melbourne City
0 : 2 Palermo
26 Jul
Weston Workers Bears
0 : 3 Melbourne City
02 May
Auckland FC
2 : 1 Melbourne City
Page 1 of 7
07 Aug
Melbourne City
0 : 2 Palermo
26 Apr
Melbourne City
1 : 2 Adelaide Utd
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
07 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 1 Central Coast
04 Apr
Melbourne City
3 : 0 Western Sydney Wanderers
Page 1 of 4
Melbourne Victory
(Away) 16 Sept
Viettel
1 : 1 Melbourne Victory
09 Sept
Sydney FC
0 : 2 Melbourne Victory
19 Aug
APIA Leichhardt
0 : 1 Melbourne Victory
08 Aug
Western Sydney Wanderers
1 : 2 Melbourne Victory
26 Jul
Kingborough Lions
0 : 4 Melbourne Victory
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Viettel
1 : 1 Melbourne Victory
09 Sept
Sydney FC
0 : 2 Melbourne Victory
19 Aug
APIA Leichhardt
0 : 1 Melbourne Victory
08 Aug
Western Sydney Wanderers
1 : 2 Melbourne Victory
26 Jul
Kingborough Lions
0 : 4 Melbourne Victory
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
