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Melbourne Knights vs North Geelong Warriors

Australia Australia

Victoria Premier League Knights Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Dunlop F.
33' Event
Wall P.
75' Event
Ellenberger J.

AI Match Summary

Melbourne Knights in this Victoria Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Melbourne Knights.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Melbourne Knights
33%
Draws
27%
North Geelong Warriors
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Melbourne Knights

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Melbourne Knights have won more games recently than North Geelong Warriors.
  • Model gives Melbourne Knights a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Melbourne Knights have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Melbourne Knights Clean Sheet 16%
North Geelong Warriors Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melbourne Knights North Geelong Warriors
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 10
Draws 4 4
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 2 1.88
Goals Conceded 1 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Victoria Premier League
Melbourne Knights vs North Geelong Warriors
2:1
Feb 14, 2026 Victoria Premier League
North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Knights
1:0
Jul 9, 2023 NPL Victoria
North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Knights
0:3
Apr 10, 2023 NPL Victoria
Melbourne Knights vs North Geelong Warriors
3:2
Aug 12, 2017 NPL Victoria
North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Knights
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Melbourne Knights Compare

Top Goalscorer Dunlop F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ellenberger J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

North Geelong Warriors Compare

Top Goalscorer Wall P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melbourne Knights 39 / 100
North Geelong Warriors 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melbourne Knights North Geelong Warriors

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

North Geelong Warriors has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Melbourne Knights scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Melbourne Knights remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Melbourne Knights VS North Geelong Warriors
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Melbourne Knights21142537:1644
2Northcote City21124537:2340
3Brunswick Juventus20130740:3039
4Melbourne Victory U212094748:3531
5Eltham Redbacks2094748:3531
6Bulleen2086633:2730
7Manningham United Blues2193937:4130
8Melbourne Srbija1992824:2229
9North Geelong Warriors1991933:3728
10Western United U2120811142:5025
11Brunswick City21731136:4424
12Langwarrin2065936:4523
13North Sunshine Eagles20531228:3618
14Port Melbourne Sharks20241410:4810