Sport Picks
Melbourne Victory U21 vs North Geelong Warriors
Australia
Victoria Premier League 
Match Events
43'
43'
Ghossaini M.
70'
70'
Mihailidis J.
73'
73'
Banovac A.
AI Match Summary
Melbourne Victory U21 in this Victoria Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Melbourne Victory U21.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Melbourne Victory U21
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Melbourne Victory U21 lately — more wins on the board than North Geelong Warriors.
- Melbourne Victory U21 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Victoria Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).
- Melbourne Victory U21 have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
Melbourne Victory U21 Clean Sheet 12%
North Geelong Warriors Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Melbourne Victory U21 | North Geelong Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 13 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 3 | 1.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 3.00 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.88 | 1.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 18, 2026 Victoria Premier League
North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Victory U21
0:2
Apr 11, 2026 Victoria Premier League
Melbourne Victory U21 vs North Geelong Warriors
2:1
Jun 15, 2024 Victoria Premier League
North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Victory U21
2:3
Mar 10, 2024 Victoria Premier League
Melbourne Victory U21 vs North Geelong Warriors
4:0
Aug 25, 2019 Victoria Premier League
Melbourne Victory U21 vs North Geelong Warriors
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Melbourne Victory U21 Compare
Top Goalscorer Ghossaini M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Mihailidis J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5
North Geelong Warriors Compare
Top Goalscorer Banovac A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Melbourne Victory U21 83 / 100
North Geelong Warriors 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Melbourne Victory U21 North Geelong Warriors
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Melbourne Victory U21 found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).
North Geelong Warriors has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Melbourne Victory U21 has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Melbourne Victory U21 VS North Geelong Warriors
3 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 75%
88% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Melbourne Victory U21
(Home) 18 Jul
North Geelong Warriors
0 : 2 Melbourne Victory U21
10 Jul
Langwarrin
3 : 3 Melbourne Victory U21
05 Jul
Western United U21
3 : 2 Melbourne Victory U21
22 Jun
Melbourne Victory U21
4 : 1 Brunswick City
13 Jun
Bulleen
2 : 4 Melbourne Victory U21
Page 1 of 6
22 Jun
Melbourne Victory U21
4 : 1 Brunswick City
08 Jun
Melbourne Victory U21
4 : 0 Brunswick Juventus
01 Jun
Melbourne Victory U21
1 : 2 Melbourne Knights
11 May
Melbourne Victory U21
4 : 0 Manningham United Blues
11 Apr
Melbourne Victory U21
2 : 1 North Geelong Warriors
Page 1 of 3
North Geelong Warriors
(Away) 25 Jul
Brunswick Juventus
3 : 0 North Geelong Warriors
18 Jul
North Geelong Warriors
0 : 2 Melbourne Victory U21
11 Jul
Eltham Redbacks
3 : 1 North Geelong Warriors
04 Jul
North Geelong Warriors
1 : 1 Port Melbourne Sharks
20 Jun
Manningham United Blues
2 : 3 North Geelong Warriors
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Brunswick Juventus
3 : 0 North Geelong Warriors
11 Jul
Eltham Redbacks
3 : 1 North Geelong Warriors
20 Jun
Manningham United Blues
2 : 3 North Geelong Warriors
24 May
Melbourne Knights
2 : 1 North Geelong Warriors
10 May
Western United U21
3 : 2 North Geelong Warriors
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 42:17 | 47 |
| 2 | Brunswick Juventus | 22 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 44:30 | 45 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 40:24 | 43 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory U21 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 50:35 | 34 |
| 5 | Bulleen | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 37:29 | 33 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 49:38 | 32 |
| 7 | Melbourne Srbija | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 26:23 | 32 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 38:46 | 30 |
| 9 | North Geelong Warriors | 21 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 33:42 | 28 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 41:44 | 27 |
| 11 | Western United U21 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 44:59 | 25 |
| 12 | Langwarrin | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 36:46 | 23 |
| 13 | North Sunshine Eagles | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 29:37 | 19 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne Sharks | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12:51 | 13 |
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