Sport Picks
Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 AAMI Park, Melbourne 
Match Events
12'
12'
Ostler T.
Assist: Bozinovski R.
17'
17'
Sub
Miranda R. In: Traore A.
Out: Miranda R.
42'
42'
Ostler T.
AI Match Summary
The A-League 2025/2026 game between Melbourne Victory and Perth Glory finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Melbourne Victory.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
48%
20%
32%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Melbourne Victory
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
48%
/ Medium Confidence
- Perth Glory haven't matched Melbourne Victory's recent run of results.
- Model gives Melbourne Victory a 48% chance of winning this.
- Regular A-League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Melbourne Victory have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Melbourne Victory Clean Sheet 20%
Perth Glory Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Melbourne Victory | Perth Glory |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 17 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.78 | 1.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.09 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 2, 2026 A-League
Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory
3:2
Oct 31, 2025 A-League
Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory
0:2
Sep 24, 2025 Club Friendly
Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory
3:0
Sep 21, 2025 Club Friendly
Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 A-League
Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Melbourne Victory Compare
Top Goalscorer D'Arrigo L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Velupillay N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Perth Glory Compare
Top Goalscorer Ostler T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ngo D. K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Melbourne Victory 67 / 100
Perth Glory 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Melbourne Victory Perth Glory
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Melbourne Victory Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Perth Glory conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.
Melbourne Victory's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 32 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Melbourne Victory has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Melbourne Victory VS Perth Glory
2.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Melbourne Victory
(Home) 09 Sept
Sydney FC
0 : 2 Melbourne Victory
19 Aug
APIA Leichhardt
0 : 1 Melbourne Victory
08 Aug
Western Sydney Wanderers
1 : 2 Melbourne Victory
26 Jul
Kingborough Lions
0 : 4 Melbourne Victory
02 May
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Sydney FC
Page 1 of 7
02 May
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Sydney FC
17 Apr
Melbourne Victory
2 : 2 Newcastle Jets
05 Apr
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
21 Mar
Melbourne Victory
4 : 1 Central Coast
15 Mar
Melbourne Victory
4 : 1 Macarthur FC
Page 1 of 3
Perth Glory
(Away) 21 Jul
Queensland Lions
2 : 1 Perth Glory
25 Apr
Perth Glory
2 : 1 Brisbane Roar
18 Apr
Sydney FC
0 : 0 Perth Glory
12 Apr
Perth Glory
3 : 1 Macarthur FC
04 Apr
Central Coast
2 : 2 Perth Glory
Page 1 of 6
21 Jul
Queensland Lions
2 : 1 Perth Glory
18 Apr
Sydney FC
0 : 0 Perth Glory
04 Apr
Central Coast
2 : 2 Perth Glory
14 Mar
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 0 Perth Glory
08 Mar
Auckland FC
2 : 2 Perth Glory
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
