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Melhus vs Surnadal

Norway Norway

Division 3 - Group 2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Smevoll S.
45' Event
Thorsen E.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Division 3 - Group 2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Melhus
28%
Draws
22%
Surnadal
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Melhus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Melhus lately — more wins on the board than Surnadal.
  • Win probability leans Melhus's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Melhus have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39.2%
Melhus Clean Sheet 68%
Surnadal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melhus Surnadal
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 19 3
Draws 6 7
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 1.88 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.88 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2025 Division 3 - Group 2
Melhus vs Surnadal
1:1
Apr 5, 2025 Division 3 - Group 2
Surnadal vs Melhus
0:7
Jul 27, 2024 Division 3 - Group 4
Melhus vs Surnadal
2:0
Apr 13, 2024 Division 3 - Group 4
Surnadal vs Melhus
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Melhus Compare

Top Goalscorer Thorsen E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Surnadal Compare

Top Goalscorer Smevoll S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melhus 59 / 100
Surnadal 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melhus Surnadal

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melhus scored in 90% of their last 31 games.

Surnadal let in goals in 93% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Melhus stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Melhus VS Surnadal
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%