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Melhus vs Surnadal

Norway Norway

Division 3 - Group 2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Smevoll S.
45' Event
Thorsen E.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Division 3 - Group 2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Melhus
20%
Draws
50%
Surnadal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Surnadal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Melhus lately — more wins on the board than Surnadal.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Melhus have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39.2%
Melhus Clean Sheet 22%
Surnadal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melhus Surnadal
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 3
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 20
Goals Scored 2.23 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.42 3.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.85 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2025 Division 3 - Group 2
Melhus vs Surnadal
1:1
Apr 5, 2025 Division 3 - Group 2
Surnadal vs Melhus
0:7
Jul 27, 2024 Division 3 - Group 4
Melhus vs Surnadal
2:0
Apr 13, 2024 Division 3 - Group 4
Surnadal vs Melhus
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Melhus Compare

Top Goalscorer Thorsen E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.93

Surnadal Compare

Top Goalscorer Smevoll S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melhus 37 / 100
Surnadal 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melhus Surnadal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Surnadal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melhus scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Surnadal let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Melhus stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Melhus VS -
2.5 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Melhus

(Home)
20 Sept
Molde 2
1 : 0
Melhus
12 Sept
Melhus
1 : 2
Volda
05 Sept
Herd
1 : 4
Melhus
30 Aug
Melhus
0 : 1
Strindheim
22 Aug
Melhus
0 : 3
Stjordals Blink
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Surnadal

(Away)
26 Oct
Surnadal
1 : 3
Spjelkavik
18 Oct
Tiller
1 : 1
Surnadal
11 Oct
Surnadal
2 : 3
Kristiansund 2
04 Oct
Melhus
1 : 1
Surnadal
27 Sept
Surnadal
4 : 1
Nardo
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