Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Melilla vs La Union (Malacitano)

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro, Melilla
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Riera R.
28' Event
El Kounni K.
(Penalty)
31' Event
Rodriguez R.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Melilla and La Union (Malacitano) finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Melilla
44%
Draws
20%
La Union (Malacitano)
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • La Union (Malacitano) carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Melilla Clean Sheet 18%
La Union (Malacitano) Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melilla La Union (Malacitano)
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 12 3
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 1 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs La Union (Malacitano)
2:2
Sep 28, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
La Union (Malacitano) vs Melilla
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Melilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Segura A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

La Union (Malacitano) Compare

Top Goalscorer Riera R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melilla 36 / 100
La Union (Malacitano) 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melilla La Union (Malacitano)

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LAU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

La Union (Malacitano) has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Melilla's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: La Union (Malacitano) registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Melilla VS La Union (Malacitano)
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Melilla

(Home)
03 May
Malaga B
3 : 3
Melilla
26 Apr
Melilla
2 : 4
Linares
19 Apr
Recreativo Huelva
1 : 0
Melilla
12 Apr
Melilla
0 : 1
Aguilas FC
05 Apr
CD Estepona
1 : 1
Melilla
Page 1 of 6

La Union (Malacitano)

(Away)
03 May
La Union (Malacitano)
1 : 0
Puente Genil
26 Apr
CD Extremadura
4 : 2
La Union (Malacitano)
19 Apr
La Union (Malacitano)
4 : 1
UCAM Murcia
12 Apr
Jaen
1 : 0
La Union (Malacitano)
04 Apr
Recreativo Huelva
1 : 0
La Union (Malacitano)
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1CD Extremadura341712554:3863
2Deportiva Minera34196950:3363
3Aguilas FC34187945:2561
4Xerez CD34178932:2459
5Jaen341610843:3358
6Recreativo Huelva34169941:2557
7UCAM Murcia341671149:4155
8Linares341114942:4547
9La Union (Malacitano)341361544:4345
10Lorca Deportiva341291332:3645
11Yeclano341281433:3344
12Antoniano341281438:4044
13CD Estepona341281440:4444
14Puente Genil3410101428:3740
15Xerez Deportivo FC348121434:4336
16Melilla347131436:4034
17Almeria B34492126:5321
18Malaga B34562332:6621
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)