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Melville vs Christchurch Prediction & H2H Stats

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2023
Melville Logo

Melville

Sun, Sep 10, 2023
2 - 3
04:00 AM
Christchurch Logo

Christchurch

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-3, with Christchurch advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Melville
15%
Draws
59%
Christchurch
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Christchurch

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Christchurch come out ahead of Melville on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Christchurch arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Christchurch, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Melville here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Melville Clean Sheet 10%
Christchurch Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melville Christchurch
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 14 16
Draws 1 5
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.6 1.84
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2023 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Christchurch
2:3
Oct 30, 2022 National League
Christchurch vs Melville
2:5
Aug 3, 2019 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Christchurch
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melville 30 / 100
Christchurch 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melville Christchurch

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.33 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Melville scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Christchurch has conceded goals in 69% of their last 32 outings.

Solid form: Melville remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Melville VS Christchurch
0.33 Goals Scored 2
3 Goals Conceded 1.5
33% Over 1.5 88%
33% Over 2.5 75%
33% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Melville

(Home)
04 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
05 Jul
Auckland United
7 : 1
Melville
06 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
10 Sept
Melville
2 : 3
Christchurch
19 Aug
Melville
3 : 1
Waterside Karori
Page 1 of 6

Christchurch

(Away)
05 Mar
Coastal Spirit
0 : 0
Christchurch
19 Feb
Nomads United
2 : 1
Christchurch
29 Nov
Christchurch
1 : 4
Auckland FC 2
21 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Christchurch
15 Nov
Christchurch
3 : 1
Western Suburbs
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC 0
Melville 2
Western Springs 3
Auckland City 2
Roslyn Wakari 4
Wanaka FC 3
Napier City 0
Waterside Karori 3
Hamilton 3
Ngaruawahia AFC 2
Cashmere Technical 0
Christchurch 3
Petone 0
Wellington Olympic 5
Birkenhead 1
Eastern Suburbs 2
Quarter-finals
Melville 1
Western Springs 0
Roslyn Wakari 2
Waterside Karori 5
Hamilton 0
Christchurch 3
Wellington Olympic 2
Eastern Suburbs 3
Semi-finals
Melville 3
Waterside Karori 1
Christchurch 2
Eastern Suburbs 1
Final
Melville 2
Christchurch 3