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Melville vs Hibiscus Coast - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Darkwa E.

AI Match Summary

Hibiscus Coast in this Chatham Cup 2024 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Melville
15%
Draws
61%
Hibiscus Coast
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hibiscus Coast

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Melville have won more games recently than Hibiscus Coast.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Melville have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Hibiscus Coast, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Melville Clean Sheet 12%
Hibiscus Coast Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Melville Hibiscus Coast
Matches Played 30 4
Wins 14 2
Draws 1 0
Losses 15 2
Goals Scored 1.6 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.73 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Hibiscus Coast
0:1
Jul 6, 2024 Chatham Cup
Melville vs Hibiscus Coast
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Melville Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Hibiscus Coast Compare

Top Goalscorer Darkwa E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Melville 30 / 100
Hibiscus Coast 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Melville Hibiscus Coast

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hibiscus Coast Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melville found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Hibiscus Coast conceded in 50% of 4 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Melville has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Melville VS Hibiscus Coast
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Melville

(Home)
04 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
05 Jul
Auckland United
7 : 1
Melville
06 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
10 Sept
Melville
2 : 3
Christchurch
19 Aug
Melville
3 : 1
Waterside Karori
Page 1 of 6

Hibiscus Coast

(Away)
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast
27 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
3 : 4
Coastal Spirit
06 Jul
Melville
0 : 1
Hibiscus Coast

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Melville 0
Hibiscus Coast 1
Ferrymead Bays 3
Coastal Spirit 5
Wellington Olympic 8
Stop Out SC 0
Manurewa 3
Onehunga Mangere 2
Otago University 3
Dunedin City Royals 2
Cambridge 1
Auckland City 4
Napier City 2
Miramar 1
Western Springs 3
Birkenhead 4
Quarter-finals
Hibiscus Coast 3
Coastal Spirit 4
Wellington Olympic 4
Manurewa 0
Otago University 1
Auckland City 5
Napier City 1
Birkenhead 2
Semi-finals
Coastal Spirit 1
Wellington Olympic 5
Auckland City 4
Birkenhead 2
Final
Wellington Olympic 2
Auckland City 1