Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
The Tercera Division - Group 12 2011/2012 game between Mensajero and Tijarafe finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mensajero.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mensajero
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Mensajero carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Mensajero's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Tercera Division - Group 12 2011/2012 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Mensajero here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Mensajero Clean Sheet 20%
Tijarafe Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mensajero | Tijarafe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 17 | 5 |
| Draws | 5 | 3 |
| Losses | 8 | 22 |
| Goals Scored | 1.3 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.83 | 2.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.42 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 27, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Mensajero vs Tijarafe
3:0
Sep 7, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Tijarafe vs Mensajero
0:4
Jan 8, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Mensajero vs Tijarafe
4:2
Aug 27, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Tijarafe vs Mensajero
1:1
Jan 23, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Mensajero vs Tijarafe
3:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mensajero 85 / 100
Tijarafe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mensajero Tijarafe
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mensajero Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tijarafe let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.
Mensajero scored in 77% of their last 30 games.
Mensajero has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Mensajero VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Mensajero
(Home) 03 Oct
Villaverde Norte
1 : 2 Mensajero
27 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 0 San Miguel
19 Sept
Anaza
1 : 0 Mensajero
13 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 0 Tenerife C
09 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 2 Murcia
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27 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 0 San Miguel
13 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 0 Tenerife C
09 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 2 Murcia
24 May
Mensajero
1 : 0 Tamaraceite
10 May
Mensajero
1 : 0 UD San Fernando
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Tijarafe
(Away) 19 May
Tijarafe
3 : 0 Vecindario
12 May
Estrella
5 : 1 Tijarafe
04 May
Tijarafe
1 : 0 UD Gomera
28 Apr
Las Zocas
4 : 0 Tijarafe
20 Apr
Tijarafe
2 : 3 San Isidro
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12 May
Estrella
5 : 1 Tijarafe
28 Apr
Las Zocas
4 : 0 Tijarafe
13 Apr
Ibarra
2 : 0 Tijarafe
28 Mar
SD Tenisca
2 : 1 Tijarafe
17 Mar
San Pedro Martir
0 : 1 Tijarafe
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Marino | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 77:35 | 76 |
| 2 | SD Tenisca | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 60:41 | 72 |
| 3 | Las Palmas B | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 68:29 | 71 |
| 4 | Vera CD | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 68:40 | 70 |
| 5 | Lanzarote | 38 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 50:34 | 69 |
| 6 | Atletico Granadilla | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 55:37 | 65 |
| 7 | Estrella | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 47:34 | 63 |
| 8 | Tenerife B | 38 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 70:53 | 59 |
| 9 | Corralejo | 38 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 49:45 | 58 |
| 10 | Telde | 38 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 55:52 | 54 |
| 11 | San Pedro Martir | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 50:59 | 47 |
| 12 | UD San Andres y Sauces | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 47:65 | 46 |
| 13 | Mensajero | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 54:63 | 45 |
| 14 | Villa Santa Brigida | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 56:66 | 45 |
| 15 | Atletico Victoria | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 45:62 | 45 |
| 16 | Las Zocas | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 46:60 | 41 |
| 17 | Tijarafe | 38 | 11 | 5 | 22 | 39:67 | 38 |
| 18 | CD Laguna | 38 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 35:55 | 37 |
| 19 | Real Sporting San Jose | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 36:68 | 32 |
| 20 | CD Charco Del Pino | 38 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 36:78 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2011/2012 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2011/2012 (Main)
