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Mercadal vs Platges de Calvia

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Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Mercadal E. G.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 game between Mercadal and Platges de Calvia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mercadal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Mercadal
20%
Draws
34%
Platges de Calvia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mercadal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Mercadal have managed 0.9 goals a game lately — Platges de Calvia are scoring more at 1.13.
  • Mercadal are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Mercadal Clean Sheet 10%
Platges de Calvia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mercadal Platges de Calvia
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 11
Draws 5 4
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 0.9 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Platges de Calvia
1:0
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Platges de Calvia vs Mercadal
4:1
Mar 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Platges de Calvia vs Mercadal
1:0
Nov 10, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Platges de Calvia
1:1
May 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Platges de Calvia vs Mercadal
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mercadal Compare

Top Goalscorer Mercadal E. G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Platges de Calvia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mercadal 38 / 100
Platges de Calvia 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mercadal Platges de Calvia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mercadal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mercadal's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Platges de Calvia let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Mercadal stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mercadal VS Platges de Calvia
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mercadal

(Home)
26 Sept
Santanyi
1 : 1
Mercadal
19 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 2
Arenal
12 Sept
Inter Ibiza
0 : 2
Mercadal
05 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 1
Formentera
10 May
Mercadal
3 : 2
Alcudia
Page 1 of 6

Platges de Calvia

(Away)
26 Sept
Platges de Calvia
1 : 0
Cardassar
18 Sept
Binissalem
0 : 3
Platges de Calvia
12 Sept
Platges de Calvia
1 : 2
Manacor
06 Sept
SD Ibiza
2 : 1
Platges de Calvia
10 May
Cardassar
3 : 1
Platges de Calvia
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mallorca B 34 26 6 2 105:22 84
2 Manacor 34 24 5 5 71:39 77
3 Pena Deportiva 34 20 8 6 69:30 68
4 Constancia 34 19 5 10 62:29 62
5 Llosetense 34 16 10 8 59:40 58
6 Formentera 34 13 13 8 40:29 52
7 Inter Ibiza 34 15 5 14 42:43 50
8 Mercadal 34 15 4 15 31:45 49
9 Cardassar 34 12 8 14 38:55 44
10 Platges de Calvia 34 12 6 16 41:43 42
11 Binissalem 34 10 11 13 26:34 41
12 Santanyi 34 11 8 15 43:58 41
13 Alcudia 34 11 5 18 37:62 38
14 CD Son Cladera 34 11 5 18 41:63 38
15 Portmany 34 8 6 20 25:50 30
16 Collerense 34 6 10 18 41:64 28
17 Felanitx 34 5 11 18 32:62 26
18 Rotlet Molinar 34 5 8 21 34:69 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 (Play Offs)