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Mercadal vs Portmany

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Martinez S.
77' Event
Meissa S.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Mercadal in this Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mercadal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Mercadal
30%
Draws
29%
Portmany
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mercadal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mercadal lately — more wins on the board than Portmany.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Mercadal Clean Sheet 10%
Portmany Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mercadal Portmany
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 7
Draws 4 6
Losses 13 17
Goals Scored 0.93 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Portmany vs Mercadal
0:0
Oct 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Portmany
2:0
Feb 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Portmany vs Mercadal
0:0
Oct 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Portmany
0:0
Mar 16, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Mercadal vs Portmany
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mercadal Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Portmany Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mercadal 30 / 100
Portmany 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mercadal Portmany

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portmany Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Portmany conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Mercadal scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Mercadal stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Mercadal VS Portmany
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mercadal

(Home)
12 Sept
Inter Ibiza
0 : 2
Mercadal
05 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 1
Formentera
10 May
Mercadal
3 : 2
Alcudia
03 May
Mallorca B
7 : 0
Mercadal
29 Apr
Llosetense
6 : 1
Mercadal
Page 1 of 6

Portmany

(Away)
10 May
Portmany
0 : 1
Rotlet Molinar
02 May
Collerense
2 : 1
Portmany
26 Apr
Portmany
1 : 1
Santanyi
18 Apr
CD Son Cladera
1 : 1
Portmany
11 Apr
Portmany
3 : 1
Alcudia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mallorca B 34 26 6 2 105:22 84
2 Manacor 34 24 5 5 71:39 77
3 Pena Deportiva 34 20 8 6 69:30 68
4 Constancia 34 19 5 10 62:29 62
5 Llosetense 34 16 10 8 59:40 58
6 Formentera 34 13 13 8 40:29 52
7 Inter Ibiza 34 15 5 14 42:43 50
8 Mercadal 34 15 4 15 31:45 49
9 Cardassar 34 12 8 14 38:55 44
10 Platges de Calvia 34 12 6 16 41:43 42
11 Binissalem 34 10 11 13 26:34 41
12 Santanyi 34 11 8 15 43:58 41
13 Alcudia 34 11 5 18 37:62 38
14 CD Son Cladera 34 11 5 18 41:63 38
15 Portmany 34 8 6 20 25:50 30
16 Collerense 34 6 10 18 41:64 28
17 Felanitx 34 5 11 18 32:62 26
18 Rotlet Molinar 34 5 8 21 34:69 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 (Play Offs)