Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Merten vs Sportfreunde Duren

Germany Germany

Oberliga Mittelrhein 2025/2026
Merten Logo

Merten

6 - 0
FT
Sportfreunde Duren Logo

Sportfreunde Duren

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Oberliga Mittelrhein 2025/2026 game between Merten and Sportfreunde Duren finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Merten.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Merten
15%
Draws
0%
Sportfreunde Duren
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Merten

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Merten come out ahead of Sportfreunde Duren on wins alone.
  • Model gives Merten a 85% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 73%
Over 4.5 Goals 33%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Merten Clean Sheet 20%
Sportfreunde Duren Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merten Sportfreunde Duren
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 4
Draws 6 2
Losses 7 24
Goals Scored 2.79 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.07 3.43
Expected Goals (xG) 4.00 0.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Oberliga Mittelrhein
Merten vs Sportfreunde Duren
6:0
Oct 24, 2025 Oberliga Mittelrhein
Sportfreunde Duren vs Merten
0:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merten 85 / 100
Sportfreunde Duren 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merten Sportfreunde Duren

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Merten Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Merten scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Sportfreunde Duren let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Difficult form: Sportfreunde Duren registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Merten VS Sportfreunde Duren
4.5 Goals Scored 0.71
1 Goals Conceded 4.29
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 86%
75% Over 3.5 71%

Recent Form & Match History

Merten

(Home)
27 Sept
Bornheim
4 : 3
Merten
20 Sept
Merten
3 : 1
FC Hurth
13 Sept
VfL Vichttal
2 : 2
Merten
06 Sept
Merten
5 : 0
Lindenthal-Hohenlind
30 Aug
Siegburger
2 : 0
Merten
Page 1 of 6

Sportfreunde Duren

(Away)
07 Jun
Sportfreunde Duren
0 : 3
FC Wegberg-Beeck
31 May
Fortuna Koln II
6 : 1
Sportfreunde Duren
25 May
Bergisch Gladbach
7 : 1
Sportfreunde Duren
17 May
Sportfreunde Duren
1 : 3
Eintracht Hohkeppel
10 May
Frechen
2 : 0
Sportfreunde Duren
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergisch Gladbach 30 20 7 3 85:28 67
2 Eintracht Hohkeppel 30 20 4 6 86:36 64
3 Siegburger 30 19 5 6 75:34 62
4 Merten 30 18 6 6 80:28 60
5 VfL Vichttal 30 18 5 7 80:43 59
6 FC Wegberg-Beeck 30 15 6 9 62:35 51
7 Frechen 30 16 2 12 66:54 50
8 Bornheim 30 14 4 12 65:56 46
9 Konigsdorf 30 14 4 12 53:54 46
10 Fortuna Koln II 30 13 6 11 62:47 45
11 1. FC Duren 30 11 5 14 49:59 38
12 Hennef 30 11 2 17 45:66 35
13 SpVg Porz 1919 30 7 4 19 58:99 25
14 Teutonia Weiden 30 4 4 22 25:104 16
15 Sportfreunde Duren 30 4 2 24 41:103 14
16 Pesch 30 2 2 26 26:112 8
Promotion - Regionalliga West (Main)