Sport Picks
Merthyr Town vs Oxford City
England
National League North 2025/2026 
Match Events
6'
6'
Cox C.
48'
48'
Bearne J.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this National League North 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
20%
48%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Oxford City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
48%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Oxford City lately — more wins on the board than Merthyr Town.
- Model gives Oxford City a 48% chance of winning this.
- Regular National League North 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 16%
Oxford City Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Merthyr Town | Oxford City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 16 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.54 | 1.69 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.57 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 3, 2026 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Oxford City
1:1
Dec 26, 2025 National League North
Oxford City vs Merthyr Town
1:3
Apr 17, 2010 Southern Premier League
Merthyr Town vs Oxford City
2:3
Nov 28, 2009 Southern Premier League
Oxford City vs Merthyr Town
2:2
Apr 11, 2009 Southern Premier League
Merthyr Town vs Oxford City
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Cox C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Oxford City Compare
Top Goalscorer Bearne J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Merthyr Town 19 / 100
Oxford City 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Merthyr Town Oxford City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Oxford City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Merthyr Town scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.
Games between these two average 3.80 goals.
Oxford City has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.
Recent resilience: Merthyr Town stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Merthyr Town VS Oxford City
1.13 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Merthyr Town
(Home) 19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
29 Aug
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Chorley
18 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 2 Telford
08 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 0 Hednesford
Page 1 of 4
Oxford City
(Away) 19 Sept
Dorchester
0 : 2 Oxford City
12 Sept
Radcliffe
0 : 3 Oxford City
08 Sept
Telford
1 : 0 Oxford City
05 Sept
Oxford City
4 : 0 Chorley
31 Aug
Worksop
0 : 1 Oxford City
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Dorchester
0 : 2 Oxford City
12 Sept
Radcliffe
0 : 3 Oxford City
08 Sept
Telford
1 : 0 Oxford City
31 Aug
Worksop
0 : 1 Oxford City
22 Aug
Spennymoor
1 : 4 Oxford City
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AFC Fylde | 46 | 32 | 4 | 10 | 112:51 | 100 |
| 2 | South Shields | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 99:43 | 95 |
| 3 | Kidderminster | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 74:51 | 87 |
| 4 | Macclesfield | 46 | 24 | 7 | 15 | 81:68 | 79 |
| 5 | Buxton | 46 | 22 | 7 | 17 | 83:61 | 73 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 46 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 61:52 | 73 |
| 7 | Chester | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 66:64 | 73 |
| 8 | Merthyr Town | 46 | 22 | 4 | 20 | 95:86 | 70 |
| 9 | Darlington FC | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 78:68 | 69 |
| 10 | Spennymoor | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 62:69 | 68 |
| 11 | Telford | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 85:65 | 65 |
| 12 | Marine | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 62:72 | 62 |
| 13 | Radcliffe | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 76:83 | 60 |
| 14 | Southport | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 64:71 | 60 |
| 15 | Chorley | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 66:65 | 57 |
| 16 | Worksop | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 66:74 | 57 |
| 17 | Oxford City | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 62:67 | 56 |
| 18 | Bedford | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 66:77 | 53 |
| 19 | King’s Lynn | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 56:64 | 52 |
| 20 | Hereford | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 64:79 | 52 |
| 21 | Curzon Ashton | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 67:88 | 52 |
| 22 | Alfreton | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 49:82 | 50 |
| 23 | Peterborough Sports | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 51:96 | 39 |
| 24 | Leamington | 46 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 41:90 | 29 |
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
