Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mes Rafsanjan vs Aluminium Arak

Iran Iran

Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium, Tafresh
Sat, Feb 28, 2026
VS
03:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mes Rafsanjan host Aluminium Arak in the Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Aluminium Arak have shipped 0.89 goals a game lately, while Mes Rafsanjan have conceded 1.15 and scored 0.46. Head-to-head, Mes Rafsanjan have won 2 to Aluminium Arak's 0, with 3 draws. They last met on Feb 28, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 0.25 vs 0.63, favoring Aluminium Arak. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Mes Rafsanjan
35%
Draws
42%
Aluminium Arak
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Aluminium Arak

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Aluminium Arak carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Aluminium Arak's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.6%
Mes Rafsanjan Clean Sheet 20%
Aluminium Arak Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mes Rafsanjan Aluminium Arak
Matches Played 26 27
Wins 4 8
Draws 8 10
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 0.46 0.85
Goals Conceded 1.15 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 0.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Persian Gulf Pro League
Mes Rafsanjan vs Aluminium Arak
0:0
Oct 24, 2025 Persian Gulf Pro League
Aluminium Arak vs Mes Rafsanjan
0:0
Feb 2, 2025 Persian Gulf Pro League
Aluminium Arak vs Mes Rafsanjan
0:0
Aug 29, 2024 Persian Gulf Pro League
Mes Rafsanjan vs Aluminium Arak
3:1
Jun 15, 2024 Hazfi Cup
Aluminium Arak vs Mes Rafsanjan
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mes Rafsanjan 16 / 100
Aluminium Arak 67 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mes Rafsanjan Aluminium Arak

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aluminium Arak Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mes Rafsanjan went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Mes Rafsanjan's goal record stands at 31% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Aluminium Arak's defensive record shows goals conceded in 56% of 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Mes Rafsanjan VS Aluminium Arak
0.25 Goals Scored 0.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.25
25% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mes Rafsanjan

(Home)
22 Sept
Kara Gostar Shabestar
0 : 0
Mes Rafsanjan
16 Sept
Mes Rafsanjan
0 : 0
Havadar SC
22 Jul
Mes Rafsanjan
0 : 3
Sanat Naft
22 Feb
Mes Rafsanjan
0 : 1
Esteghlal TEH
14 Feb
Paykan
0 : 2
Mes Rafsanjan
Page 1 of 6

Aluminium Arak

(Away)
06 Sept
Aluminium Arak
0 : 0
Esteghlal TEH
01 Sept
Gol Gohar
0 : 2
Aluminium Arak
28 Aug
Aluminium Arak
2 : 2
Kheybar Khorramabad
23 Aug
Shams Azar Qazvin
1 : 2
Aluminium Arak
18 Aug
Aluminium Arak
0 : 0
Chadormalu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Esteghlal TEH 22 11 8 3 29:16 41
2 Tractor 22 10 9 3 30:12 39
3 Sepahan 22 11 6 5 24:13 39
4 Gol Gohar 23 10 6 7 24:24 36
5 Chadormalu 22 9 8 5 27:19 35
6 Persepolis 22 9 7 6 23:19 34
7 Foolad 22 7 10 5 21:16 31
8 Fajr Sepasi 23 8 6 9 25:27 30
9 Kheybar Khorramabad 23 7 8 8 22:24 29
10 Malavan 22 7 8 7 13:21 29
11 Esteghlal Khuzestan 22 6 7 9 16:23 25
12 Paykan 23 5 9 9 15:21 24
13 Shams Azar Qazvin 23 3 13 7 15:19 22
14 Aluminium Arak 22 5 7 10 14:21 22
15 Zob Ahan 21 3 10 8 12:19 19
16 Mes Rafsanjan 22 3 6 13 13:29 15
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 (Relegation)