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Mestre vs Adriese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

60' Event
Bangal F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group C 2025/2026 game between Mestre and Adriese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mestre.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Mestre
15%
Draws
0%
Adriese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mestre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mestre come out ahead of Adriese on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Mestre's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Mestre Clean Sheet 68%
Adriese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mestre Adriese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 5
Draws 9 4
Losses 8 21
Goals Scored 1 0.73
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group C
Mestre vs Adriese
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Adriese vs Mestre
2:3
Apr 6, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Mestre vs Adriese
1:0
Nov 24, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Adriese vs Mestre
1:0
Nov 6, 2024 Coppa Italia Serie D
Adriese vs Mestre
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mestre Compare

Top Goalscorer Bangal F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Adriese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mestre 95 / 100
Adriese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mestre Adriese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mestre Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Adriese has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Away concern: Adriese has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Mestre found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Mestre VS Adriese
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mestre

(Home)
17 May
Legnago Salus
2 : 0
Mestre
03 May
Mestre
1 : 0
Treviso
26 Apr
Altavilla
1 : 0
Mestre
19 Apr
Mestre
1 : 1
Legnago Salus
12 Apr
Luparense FC
1 : 2
Mestre
Page 1 of 6

Adriese

(Away)
03 May
Adriese
0 : 4
Brian Lignano
26 Apr
Clodiense
2 : 1
Adriese
19 Apr
Adriese
0 : 1
Campodarsego
11 Apr
Calvi Noale
2 : 0
Adriese
02 Apr
Adriese
0 : 2
Cjarlins Muzane
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Treviso 34 21 6 7 50:25 69
2 Legnago Salus 34 18 7 9 63:41 61
3 Clodiense 34 17 9 8 47:29 60
4 Este 34 14 13 7 40:29 55
5 Mestre 34 14 13 7 37:29 55
6 Cjarlins Muzane 34 13 12 9 41:39 51
7 Brian Lignano 34 16 8 10 58:34 50
8 Conegliano 34 13 11 10 36:28 50
9 Bassano Virtus 34 12 14 8 37:27 50
10 Campodarsego 34 13 9 12 37:34 48
11 Altavilla 34 10 16 8 28:24 46
12 Calvi Noale 34 13 5 16 38:40 44
13 Luparense FC 34 10 13 11 36:39 43
14 Vigasio 34 8 14 12 44:46 38
15 San Luigi 34 8 10 16 33:54 34
16 FC Obermais 34 8 10 16 33:46 34
17 Adriese 34 5 6 23 24:62 18
18 Portogruaro 34 1 8 25 25:81 11
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2025/2026 (Play Out)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2025/2026 (Additional match)