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Metropolitanos vs Deportivo La Guaira

Venezuela Venezuela

Liga FUTVE Estadio Olimpico de la UCV
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Metropolitanos play Deportivo La Guaira in the Liga FUTVE. It looks like a close match. Recently, Metropolitanos averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Deportivo La Guaira averaged 1.06 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Metropolitanos won 0, Deportivo La Guaira won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 8, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Metropolitanos and 0.81 for Deportivo La Guaira. This points to a Metropolitanos double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Metropolitanos
35%
Draws
32%
Deportivo La Guaira
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Metropolitanos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Metropolitanos picked up more points recently compared to Deportivo La Guaira.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 30%
Over 3.5 Goals 18%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Metropolitanos Clean Sheet 26%
Deportivo La Guaira Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Metropolitanos Deportivo La Guaira
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 10
Draws 8 14
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.23 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Metropolitanos vs Deportivo La Guaira
2:2
Aug 10, 2025 Liga FUTVE
Metropolitanos vs Deportivo La Guaira
1:3
Mar 1, 2025 Liga FUTVE
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos
4:1
Aug 27, 2024 Liga FUTVE
Metropolitanos vs Deportivo La Guaira
0:0
Jul 20, 2024 Copa Venezuela
Metropolitanos vs Deportivo La Guaira
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Metropolitanos Compare

Top Goalscorer Figueroa R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zalzman D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Deportivo La Guaira Compare

Top Goalscorer Uribe A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Londono F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Metropolitanos 35 / 100
Deportivo La Guaira 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Metropolitanos Deportivo La Guaira

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Metropolitanos or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +25.1%
4.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Metropolitanos attacking → ← attacking Deportivo La Guaira

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Metropolitanos scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Deportivo La Guaira let in goals in 58% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Metropolitanos went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Deportivo La Guaira lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 44
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Deportivo La Guaira1376015:627
2Metropolitanos1374217:1025
3Dep. Tachira1373317:1224
4Universidad Central1372424:2023
5Portuguesa1355320:1220
6Estudiantes Merida1362521:1820
7Carabobo1347223:1419
8Academia Puerto Cabello1345416:1417
9Zamora1345414:1417
10Caracas1336415:1715
11Rayo Zuliano1342713:2314
12Monagas1332814:2211
13Academia Anzoategui1323815:259
14Trujillanos130499:264