Sport Picks

World

World Championship 2026 Estadio Banorte

South Africa

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mexico play South Africa in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mexico averaged 1.53 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. South Africa averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. In past meetings, Mexico won 2, South Africa won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 11, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Mexico and 0.44 for South Africa. This points to a Mexico double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Mexico

30%

Draws

28%

South Africa

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mexico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Mexico picked up more points recently compared to South Africa.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 0.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Mexico Clean Sheet 31%

South Africa Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 62%

Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mexico	South Africa
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	18	11
Draws	7	12
Losses	5	7
Goals Scored	1.53	1.2
Goals Conceded	0.8	0.9
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.25	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 11, 2026 World Championship

Mexico vs South Africa

Possession: 48% - 57% Cards: 3 - 0

2:0

Jun 11, 2010 World Championship

South Africa vs Mexico

Possession: 45% - 43% Cards: 0 - 4

1:1

Jul 9, 2005 Gold Cup

South Africa vs Mexico

Possession: 42% - 48% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Jun 7, 2000 Friendly International

Mexico vs South Africa

Possession: 42% - 43% Cards: 2 - 0

4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mexico Compare

Top Goalscorer Quinones J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Jimenez R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

South Africa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mexico 44 / 100

South Africa 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mexico South Africa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mexico or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.9%

3.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mexico attacking → ← attacking South Africa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mexico scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

South Africa let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Mexico went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

South Africa lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

61 Points in last 5 45

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

0.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6:0	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2:3	4
3	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2:3	3
4	Czech Republic	3	0	1	2	2:6	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7:3	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8:3	4
3	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5:6	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2:10	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7:1	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6:3	7
3	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1:4	3
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2:8	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8:4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2:2	4
3	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2:4	4
4	Turkey	3	1	0	2	3:5	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10:4	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4:2	6
3	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2:2	4
4	Curacao	3	0	1	2	1:9	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10:4	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7:3	5
3	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7:7	4
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2:12	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6:2	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5:3	5
3	Iran	3	0	3	0	3:3	3
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4:10	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5:0	7
2	Cape Verde	3	0	3	0	2:2	3
3	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3:4	2
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1:5	2

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10:2	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8:7	6
3	Senegal	3	1	2	8:6	3
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1:12	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8:1	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6:6	4
3	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5:7	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3:8	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4:1	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6:1	5
3	D.R. Congo	3	1	1	1	4:3	4
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2:11	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6:2	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5:5	6
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2:2	4
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0:4	0