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Mexico vs Ecuador

World World

Friendly International 2025 Estadio Akron, Zapopan
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Berterame G.
Assist: Sanchez E.
20' Event
Alcivar J.
(Penalty)
28'
Sub
Preciado A. In: Paez K.
Out: Preciado A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Mexico
15%
Draws
31%
Ecuador
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mexico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Mexico have won more games recently than Ecuador.
  • Model gives Mexico a 54% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Mexico Clean Sheet 68%
Ecuador Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mexico Ecuador
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 19 12
Draws 8 13
Losses 6 5
Goals Scored 1.42 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.85 0.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2026 World Championship
Mexico vs Ecuador
2:0
Oct 15, 2025 Friendly International
Mexico vs Ecuador
1:1
Jul 1, 2024 Copa América
Mexico vs Ecuador
0:0
Jun 5, 2022 Friendly International
Mexico vs Ecuador
0:0
Oct 28, 2021 Friendly International
Mexico vs Ecuador
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mexico Compare

Top Goalscorer Berterame G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Ecuador Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mexico 95 / 100
Ecuador 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mexico Ecuador

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mexico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mexico scored in 76% of their last 33 outings.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Mexico stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Ecuador has conceded goals in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mexico VS Ecuador
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mexico

(Home)
06 Jul
Mexico
2 : 3
England
01 Jul
Mexico
2 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
Czech Republic
0 : 3
Mexico
19 Jun
Mexico
1 : 0
South Korea
11 Jun
Mexico
2 : 0
South Africa
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Ecuador

(Away)
01 Jul
Mexico
2 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
Ecuador
2 : 1
Germany
21 Jun
Ecuador
0 : 0
Curacao
14 Jun
Ivory Coast
1 : 0
Ecuador
07 Jun
Ecuador
3 : 0
Guatemala
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