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Mexico vs Iceland

World World

Friendly International Estadio La Corregidora, Querétaro
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Ledezma R.
Assist: Gonzalez A.
24' Event
Gonzalez A.
57'
Sub
Alvarez E. In: Rodriguez C.
Out: Alvarez E.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between Mexico and Iceland finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mexico.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Mexico
20%
Draws
11%
Iceland
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mexico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mexico come out ahead of Iceland on wins alone.
  • Mexico are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Mexico have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Mexico Clean Sheet 68%
Iceland Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mexico Iceland
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 20 10
Draws 7 4
Losses 6 16
Goals Scored 1.48 1.53
Goals Conceded 0.85 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.71 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2026 Friendly International
Mexico vs Iceland
4:0
May 30, 2021 Friendly International
Mexico vs Iceland
2:1
Mar 24, 2018 Friendly International
Mexico vs Iceland
3:0
Feb 9, 2017 Friendly International
Mexico vs Iceland
1:0
Mar 25, 2010 Friendly International
Mexico vs Iceland
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mexico Compare

Top Goalscorer Ledezma R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gonzalez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.32
Avg xA / game 0.85

Iceland Compare

Avg xG / game 0.4
Avg xA / game 0.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mexico 95 / 100
Iceland 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mexico Iceland

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mexico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mexico found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (33 games).

Defensive concern: Iceland conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Mexico has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mexico VS Iceland
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 2.17
50% Over 1.5 83%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Mexico

(Home)
06 Jul
Mexico
2 : 3
England
01 Jul
Mexico
2 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
Czech Republic
0 : 3
Mexico
19 Jun
Mexico
1 : 0
South Korea
11 Jun
Mexico
2 : 0
South Africa
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Iceland

(Away)
10 Jun
Argentina
3 : 0
Iceland
31 May
Japan
1 : 0
Iceland
31 Mar
Haiti
1 : 1
Iceland
28 Mar
Canada
2 : 2
Iceland
26 Feb
Mexico
4 : 0
Iceland
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