Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mexico vs Japan

World World

Friendly International 2025 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland, CA
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Sub
Alvarez E. In: Lira E.
Out: Alvarez E.
60'
Sub
Itakura K. In: Sekine H.
Out: Itakura K.
60'
Sub
Vega A. In: Lozano H.
Out: Vega A.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between Mexico and Japan finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Mexico
20%
Draws
32%
Japan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mexico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Mexico haven't matched Japan's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Mexico's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Mexico have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Mexico Clean Sheet 68%
Japan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mexico Japan
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 19 20
Draws 7 6
Losses 4 3
Goals Scored 1.57 2.52
Goals Conceded 0.73 0.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 7, 2025 Friendly International
Mexico vs Japan
0:0
Nov 17, 2020 Friendly International
Japan vs Mexico
0:2
Jun 22, 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup
Japan vs Mexico
1:2
Jun 16, 2005 FIFA Confederations Cup
Japan vs Mexico
1:2
Feb 5, 2000 Friendly International
Japan vs Mexico
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mexico 59 / 100
Japan 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mexico Japan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mexico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mexico scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Mexico went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Japan let in goals in 34% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mexico VS Japan
2 Goals Scored 1.38
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mexico

(Home)
06 Jul
Mexico
2 : 3
England
01 Jul
Mexico
2 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
Czech Republic
0 : 3
Mexico
19 Jun
Mexico
1 : 0
South Korea
11 Jun
Mexico
2 : 0
South Africa
Page 1 of 6

Japan

(Away)
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
25 Jun
Japan
1 : 1
Sweden
21 Jun
Tunisia
0 : 4
Japan
14 Jun
Netherlands
2 : 2
Japan
31 May
Japan
1 : 0
Iceland
Page 1 of 6