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Mexico vs Peru - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Lopez M.
26' Event
Velez J.
28'
Velez J.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Friendly International matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Mexico
30%
Draws
23%
Peru
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mexico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mexico lately — more wins on the board than Peru.
  • Win probability leans Mexico's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Mexico Clean Sheet 68%
Peru Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mexico Peru
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 6
Draws 9 9
Losses 5 15
Goals Scored 1.4 0.73
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 2.01 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2026 Friendly International
Mexico vs Peru
1:1
Sep 25, 2022 Friendly International
Peru vs Mexico
0:1
Jun 4, 2015 Friendly International
Peru vs Mexico
1:1
Apr 18, 2013 Friendly International
Peru vs Mexico
0:0
Jul 9, 2011 Copa América
Peru vs Mexico
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mexico Compare

Top Goalscorer Guzman V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 1

Peru Compare

Top Goalscorer Velez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mexico 68 / 100
Peru 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mexico Peru

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mexico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mexico's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Peru let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Difficult form: Peru registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Mexico VS Peru
1.88 Goals Scored 1
0.25 Goals Conceded 2.14
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 57%
13% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Mexico

(Home)
07 Oct
Mexico
0 : 2
Chile
04 Oct
USA
3 : 0
Mexico
30 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Peru
27 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Colombia
06 Jul
Mexico
2 : 3
England
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Peru

(Away)
06 Oct
Colombia
2 : 0
Peru
03 Oct
Canada
2 : 0
Peru
30 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Peru
26 Sept
USA
4 : 1
Peru
09 Jun
Peru
1 : 3
Spain
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