Sport Picks
Miami FC vs Louisville City
USA
USL Championship Riccardo Silva Stadium, Miami, FL 
Match Events
13'
13'
Calfo A.
20'
20'
Locadia J.
Assist: Romero M.
29'
29'
Locadia J.
Assist: Tunbridge M.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Miami FC and Louisville City finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Miami FC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
60%
22%
18%
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Miami FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
82%
/ Very High Confidence
- Miami FC haven't matched Louisville City's recent run of results.
- Miami FC are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Louisville City have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Miami FC Clean Sheet 20%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Miami FC | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 17 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.88 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 23, 2026 USL Championship
Miami FC vs Louisville City
4:3
Mar 14, 2026 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Miami FC
4:1
Oct 11, 2025 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Miami FC
1:0
Aug 16, 2025 USL Championship
Miami FC vs Louisville City
2:4
Oct 2, 2024 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Miami FC
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Miami FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Locadia J.
3 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Louisville City Compare
Top Goalscorer Donovan C.
2 Goals Assists Leader Showunmi T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Miami FC 58 / 100
Louisville City 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Miami FC Louisville City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MIA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.
Miami FC's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Louisville City has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.
Miami FC has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Miami FC VS Louisville City
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Miami FC
(Home) 23 Jul
Colorado Springs
2 : 0 Miami FC
15 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 0 Indy Eleven
11 Jul
Sarasota Paradise
0 : 5 Miami FC
05 Jul
Miami FC
1 : 1 Birmingham Legion
24 Jun
Miami FC
2 : 4 Orange County SC
Page 1 of 6
15 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 0 Indy Eleven
05 Jul
Miami FC
1 : 1 Birmingham Legion
24 Jun
Miami FC
2 : 4 Orange County SC
23 May
Miami FC
4 : 3 Louisville City
16 May
Miami FC
1 : 4 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 3
Louisville City
(Away) 18 Jul
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3 : 1 Louisville City
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2 Lexington
05 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Hartford Athletic
20 Jun
Detroit City
0 : 1 Louisville City
14 Jun
Louisville City
2 : 2 Brooklyn FC
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18 Jul
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3 : 1 Louisville City
20 Jun
Detroit City
0 : 1 Louisville City
11 Jun
Phoenix Rising
0 : 2 Louisville City
04 Jun
Birmingham Legion
1 : 1 Louisville City
23 May
Miami FC
4 : 3 Louisville City
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 25:13 | 32 |
| 2 | Charleston | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 31:22 | 27 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:14 | 27 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | 24 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 19:18 | 23 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18:16 | 21 |
| 7 | Miami FC | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:26 | 21 |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24:18 | 19 |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 12:14 | 19 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 11 | Brooklyn FC | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17:26 | 13 |
| 12 | Loudoun United | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 18:29 | 12 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 17 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 23:44 | 8 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25:18 | 28 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 21:19 | 25 |
| 3 | New Mexico | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19:15 | 24 |
| 4 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26:22 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18:16 | 22 |
| 6 | Lexington | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 24:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 21 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:14 | 20 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 23:24 | 20 |
| 10 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 19 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23:26 | 18 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16:25 | 15 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)