Sport Picks
Match Events
4'
4'
Sub
Sonora J. In: Da Costa R.
Out: Sonora J.
8'
8'
Da Costa R.
10'
10'
Cicerone R.
Assist: Myers M.
AI Match Summary
Tampa Bay in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tampa Bay.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
33%
27%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Miami FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Tampa Bay have won more games recently than Miami FC.
- Model gives Miami FC a 40% chance of winning this.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Tampa Bay have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Miami FC Clean Sheet 16%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Miami FC | Tampa Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 19 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 3 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 25, 2026 USL Championship
Miami FC vs Tampa Bay
2:3
May 16, 2026 USL Cup
Miami FC vs Tampa Bay
1:4
Jun 14, 2025 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Miami FC
2:1
Apr 26, 2025 USL Cup
Tampa Bay vs Miami FC
3:4
Mar 22, 2025 USL Championship
Miami FC vs Tampa Bay
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Miami FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Locadia J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Tampa Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Cicerone R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Myers M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Miami FC 39 / 100
Tampa Bay 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Miami FC Tampa Bay
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MIA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.60 goals.
Attacking prowess: Miami FC scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.
Miami FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Tampa Bay has conceded goals in 48% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Miami FC VS Tampa Bay
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Miami FC
(Home) 25 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 3 Tampa Bay
23 Jul
Colorado Springs
2 : 0 Miami FC
15 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 0 Indy Eleven
11 Jul
Sarasota Paradise
0 : 5 Miami FC
05 Jul
Miami FC
1 : 1 Birmingham Legion
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 3 Tampa Bay
15 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 0 Indy Eleven
05 Jul
Miami FC
1 : 1 Birmingham Legion
24 Jun
Miami FC
2 : 4 Orange County SC
23 May
Miami FC
4 : 3 Louisville City
Page 1 of 3
Tampa Bay
(Away) 25 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 3 Tampa Bay
18 Jul
Loudoun United
1 : 1 Tampa Bay
11 Jul
Tampa Bay
2 : 0 FC Naples
04 Jul
Tampa Bay
1 : 4 Lexington
20 Jun
Brooklyn FC
0 : 2 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Miami FC
2 : 3 Tampa Bay
18 Jul
Loudoun United
1 : 1 Tampa Bay
20 Jun
Brooklyn FC
0 : 2 Tampa Bay
06 Jun
Sporting Jax
0 : 2 Tampa Bay
30 May
Louisville City
0 : 2 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 28:15 | 35 |
| 2 | Charleston | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32:24 | 27 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23:15 | 27 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | 24 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19:19 | 23 |
| 6 | Rhode Island | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25:18 | 22 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18:17 | 21 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 22:29 | 21 |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 12:14 | 20 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 16 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 19:29 | 15 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:27 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 18 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 23:46 | 8 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 27:19 | 31 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 22:19 | 28 |
| 3 | Colorado Springs | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 28:23 | 25 |
| 4 | New Mexico | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19:15 | 24 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 19:15 | 23 |
| 6 | FC Tulsa | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Lexington | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 24:20 | 22 |
| 8 | El Paso Locomotive | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24:26 | 21 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23:24 | 21 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 25:27 | 21 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17:27 | 15 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
