Sport Picks
Match Events
4'
4'
Sub
Sonora J. In: Da Costa R.
Out: Sonora J.
8'
8'
Da Costa R.
10'
10'
Cicerone R.
Assist: Myers M.
AI Match Summary
Tampa Bay in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tampa Bay.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
54%
15%
31%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Miami FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Tampa Bay have won more games recently than Miami FC.
- Model gives Miami FC a 54% chance of winning this.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Miami FC Clean Sheet 16%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Miami FC | Tampa Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 16 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.54 | 1.76 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.68 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 3, 2026 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Miami FC
1:2
Jul 25, 2026 USL Championship
Miami FC vs Tampa Bay
2:3
May 16, 2026 USL Cup
Miami FC vs Tampa Bay
1:4
Jun 14, 2025 USL Championship
Tampa Bay vs Miami FC
2:1
Apr 26, 2025 USL Cup
Tampa Bay vs Miami FC
3:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Miami FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Locadia J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Tampa Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Cicerone R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Myers M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Miami FC 39 / 100
Tampa Bay 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Miami FC Tampa Bay
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Miami FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.60 goals.
Miami FC scored in 71% of their last 28 games.
Miami FC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Tampa Bay let in goals in 52% of their last 29 matches.
Scoring Trends
Miami FC VS Tampa Bay
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Miami FC
(Home) 10 Oct
Miami FC
0 : 2 Loudoun United
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2 Miami FC
30 Sept
Miami FC
4 : 1 Sporting Jax
26 Sept
Indy Eleven
0 : 2 Miami FC
19 Sept
Rhode Island
1 : 2 Miami FC
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Miami FC
0 : 2 Loudoun United
30 Sept
Miami FC
4 : 1 Sporting Jax
06 Sept
Miami FC
2 : 2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
08 Aug
Miami FC
0 : 1 Las Vegas Lights
01 Aug
Miami FC
2 : 2 Detroit City
Page 1 of 3
Tampa Bay
(Away) 10 Oct
Indy Eleven
1 : 3 Tampa Bay
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2 Miami FC
27 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 0 Tampa Bay
19 Sept
Tampa Bay
4 : 0 Birmingham Legion
12 Sept
Hartford Athletic
3 : 1 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Indy Eleven
1 : 3 Tampa Bay
27 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 0 Tampa Bay
12 Sept
Hartford Athletic
3 : 1 Tampa Bay
29 Aug
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0 : 0 Tampa Bay
22 Aug
Detroit City
1 : 0 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 49:26 | 55 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 34:20 | 50 |
| 3 | Charleston | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 52:33 | 46 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 30:28 | 41 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 45:42 | 40 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 30:28 | 39 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 39:30 | 38 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 38:47 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34:36 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 34:44 | 27 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 48:36 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 44:33 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 38:26 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49:33 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32:25 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41:38 | 41 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 37:44 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 29:29 | 39 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 37:41 | 36 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | 36 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 33:35 | 35 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 30:50 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
