Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mictlan vs Deportivo Achuapa

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio La Asuncion, Asuncion Mita
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Corado J.
35'
Corado J.
35'
Corado J.

AI Match Summary

Deportivo Achuapa in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Deportivo Achuapa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Mictlan
35%
Draws
37%
Deportivo Achuapa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Deportivo Achuapa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mictlan lately — more wins on the board than Deportivo Achuapa.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Mictlan Clean Sheet 20%
Deportivo Achuapa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mictlan Deportivo Achuapa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 7
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.07 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Liga Nacional
Deportivo Achuapa vs Mictlan
0:2
Feb 2, 2026 Liga Nacional
Mictlan vs Deportivo Achuapa
0:1
Nov 16, 2025 Liga Nacional
Deportivo Achuapa vs Mictlan
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Liga Nacional
Mictlan vs Deportivo Achuapa
1:0
Jan 7, 2024 Club Friendly
Mictlan vs Deportivo Achuapa
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mictlan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Deportivo Achuapa Compare

Top Goalscorer Castrillo C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mictlan 36 / 100
Deportivo Achuapa 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mictlan Deportivo Achuapa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Deportivo Achuapa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mictlan scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Deportivo Achuapa conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Mictlan remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Deportivo Achuapa lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mictlan VS Deportivo Achuapa
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mictlan

(Home)
26 Apr
Aurora F.C.
1 : 1
Mictlan
19 Apr
Mictlan
2 : 3
Xelaju
16 Apr
Mictlan
2 : 2
Deportivo Mixco
12 Apr
Marquense
3 : 0
Mictlan
05 Apr
Mictlan
1 : 1
Comunicaciones
Page 1 of 6

Deportivo Achuapa

(Away)
26 Apr
Deportivo Achuapa
2 : 2
Antigua
19 Apr
Coban Imperial
3 : 1
Deportivo Achuapa
17 Apr
Xelaju
3 : 0
Deportivo Achuapa
12 Apr
Deportivo Achuapa
1 : 0
Malacateco
07 Apr
Guastatoya
3 : 1
Deportivo Achuapa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Xelaju 22 11 6 5 34:19 39
2 Municipal 22 11 5 6 32:21 38
3 Deportivo Mixco 22 10 6 6 30:26 36
4 Comunicaciones 22 11 2 9 28:26 35
5 Antigua 22 9 7 6 34:29 34
6 Coban Imperial 22 8 8 6 29:22 32
7 Guastatoya 22 8 7 7 29:21 31
8 Marquense 22 9 3 10 25:29 30
9 Mictlan 22 7 6 9 25:36 27
10 Malacateco 22 6 4 12 19:25 22
11 Aurora F.C. 22 4 8 10 14:30 20
12 Deportivo Achuapa 22 5 4 13 17:32 19
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)