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Middlesbrough U18 vs Derby U18 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Premier League U18
Middlesbrough U18 Logo

Middlesbrough U18

1 - 3
FT
Derby U18 Logo

Derby U18

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Clarke K.
Assist: Blake Z.
21' Event
Ogedengbe K. T.
48' Event
Turner F.
Assist: Tremain J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premier League U18 game between Middlesbrough U18 and Derby U18 finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Derby U18.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Middlesbrough U18
15%
Draws
37%
Derby U18
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Middlesbrough U18

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Middlesbrough U18 come out ahead of Derby U18 on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Middlesbrough U18's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Middlesbrough U18 Clean Sheet 10%
Derby U18 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Middlesbrough U18 Derby U18
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 3 3
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.86 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.83 2.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Premier League U18
Middlesbrough U18 vs Derby U18
1:3
Feb 14, 2026 Premier League U18
Middlesbrough U18 vs Derby U18
3:2
Sep 27, 2025 Premier League U18
Derby U18 vs Middlesbrough U18
0:0
Feb 22, 2025 Premier League U18
Middlesbrough U18 vs Derby U18
2:4
Sep 28, 2024 Premier League U18
Derby U18 vs Middlesbrough U18
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Middlesbrough U18 Compare

Top Goalscorer Turner F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Derby U18 Compare

Top Goalscorer Clarke K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ogedengbe K. T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Middlesbrough U18 56 / 100
Derby U18 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Middlesbrough U18 Derby U18

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Middlesbrough U18 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derby U18 let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Middlesbrough U18's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Middlesbrough U18 remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Middlesbrough U18 VS Derby U18
1.63 Goals Scored 2
2.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Middlesbrough U18

(Home)
24 Oct
Middlesbrough U18
3 : 1
Newcastle Utd U18
17 Oct
Leeds U18
3 : 1
Middlesbrough U18
19 Sept
Middlesbrough U18
5 : 0
Blackburn U18
12 Sept
Nottingham U18
0 : 1
Middlesbrough U18
05 Sept
Manchester United U18
5 : 0
Middlesbrough U18
Page 1 of 6

Derby U18

(Away)
24 Oct
Derby U18
1 : 5
Manchester City U18
17 Oct
Wolves U18
1 : 2
Derby U18
19 Sept
Derby U18
3 : 3
Liverpool U18
12 Sept
Stoke City U18
0 : 2
Derby U18
05 Sept
Derby U18
0 : 2
Nottingham U18
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manchester City U18 7 7 0 0 31:9 21
2 Manchester United U18 8 6 1 1 29:5 19
3 Newcastle Utd U18 8 6 0 2 23:10 18
4 Nottingham U18 7 4 2 1 17:5 14
5 Middlesbrough U18 8 3 2 3 15:16 11
6 Burnley U18 9 3 2 4 17:20 11
7 Derby U18 8 3 1 4 13:19 10
8 Liverpool U18 7 2 3 2 19:19 9
9 Leeds U18 7 3 0 4 14:21 9
10 Stoke City U18 7 2 1 4 14:19 7
11 Sunderland U18 6 2 1 3 10:18 7
12 Everton U18 7 2 0 5 12:16 6
13 Blackburn U18 7 2 0 5 6:26 6
14 Leicester U18 6 0 4 2 9:14 4
15 Wolves U18 8 1 1 6 10:22 4
Promotion - Premier League U18 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chelsea U18 9 7 0 2 37:14 21
2 Fulham U18 8 5 3 0 32:21 18
3 Tottenham U18 8 5 2 1 36:13 17
4 Arsenal U18 8 5 1 2 15:8 16
5 Brighton U18 8 5 1 2 22:21 16
6 Southampton U18 8 5 0 3 26:16 15
7 West Ham U18 8 4 2 2 19:17 14
8 Brentford U18 8 4 0 4 24:22 12
9 Bournemouth U18 8 3 2 3 17:22 11
10 Crystal Palace U18 8 3 1 4 20:20 10
11 Ipswich U18 8 3 0 5 18:25 9
12 Aston Villa U18 8 2 2 4 16:17 8
13 West Brom U18 8 2 1 5 9:22 7
14 Norwich U18 8 2 0 6 15:27 6
15 Reading U18 9 1 1 7 14:35 4
16 Birmingham U18 8 1 0 7 8:28 3
Promotion - Premier League U18 (Play Offs)