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Midtjylland vs St. Truiden - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Conference League MCH Arena, Herning
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Midtjylland host St. Truiden in the Conference League. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. St. Truiden have shipped 1.33 goals a game lately, while Midtjylland have conceded 1 and scored 2.22. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (2.44 - 1.25) back Midtjylland to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
Midtjylland
20%
Draws
17%
St. Truiden
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Midtjylland

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

63% / High Confidence
  • St. Truiden haven't matched Midtjylland's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Midtjylland's way, sitting at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Conference League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Midtjylland Clean Sheet 19%
St. Truiden Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Midtjylland St. Truiden
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 16 12
Draws 8 5
Losses 3 10
Goals Scored 2.22 1.74
Goals Conceded 1 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Midtjylland 85 / 100
St. Truiden 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Midtjylland St. Truiden

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Midtjylland Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Midtjylland found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (27 games).

Midtjylland went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: St. Truiden conceded in 67% of 27 recent games.

Away concern: St. Truiden has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Midtjylland VS St. Truiden
2.88 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Midtjylland

(Home)
11 Oct
Midtjylland
2 : 1
FC Copenhagen
19 Sept
Odense
1 : 1
Midtjylland
14 Sept
Midtjylland
4 : 1
Brondby
10 Sept
Sundby
0 : 7
Midtjylland
07 Sept
Midtjylland
2 : 2
Nordsjaelland
Page 1 of 6

St. Truiden

(Away)
11 Oct
KV Mechelen
4 : 3
St. Truiden
20 Sept
St. Truiden
0 : 2
Westerlo
12 Sept
SK Beveren
2 : 0
St. Truiden
05 Sept
St. Truiden
4 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
02 Sept
St. Truiden
0 : 3
Royale Union SG
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mjallby 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Gent 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Twente 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
19 Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
20 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
21 Brann 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
22 Braga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
23 Hearts 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
24 Lugano 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
25 Crvena zvezda 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
26 Thun 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
27 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
28 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
29 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
30 KF Egnatia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
31 Inter Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
32 FK Kauno Zalgiris 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
33 Univ. Craiova 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
34 Iberia 1999 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
35 Lincoln Red Imps 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
36 Riga FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)