Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9

Arenas Armilla

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mijas Las Lagunas play Arenas Armilla in the Tercera RFEF - Group 9. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mijas Las Lagunas averaged 1.43 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Arenas Armilla averaged 1.15 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Mijas Las Lagunas won 0, Arenas Armilla won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Mar 15, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.64 for Mijas Las Lagunas and 0.94 for Arenas Armilla. This points to a Mijas Las Lagunas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Mijas Las Lagunas

35%

Draws

29%

Arenas Armilla

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Mijas Las Lagunas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Mijas Las Lagunas picked up more points recently compared to Arenas Armilla.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.64 vs 0.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 57%

Over 2.5 Goals 28%

Over 3.5 Goals 17%

Over 4.5 Goals 8%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%

Mijas Las Lagunas Clean Sheet 24%

Arenas Armilla Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 51%

Second Half Goal 54%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mijas Las Lagunas	Arenas Armilla
Matches Played	30	33
Wins	17	14
Draws	8	10
Losses	5	9
Goals Scored	1.43	1.15
Goals Conceded	0.67	0.97
Expected Goals (xG)	2.14	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9

Mijas Las Lagunas vs Arenas Armilla

Possession: 59% - 41% Cards: 1 - 2

0:1

Nov 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9

Arenas Armilla vs Mijas Las Lagunas

Possession: 51% - 54% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Feb 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9

Mijas Las Lagunas vs Arenas Armilla

Possession: 54% - 46% Cards: 4 - 3

0:0

Sep 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9

Arenas Armilla vs Mijas Las Lagunas

Possession: 41% - 51% Cards: 2 - 2

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mijas Las Lagunas Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65

Avg xA / game 1.07

Arenas Armilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Bolivar M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mijas Las Lagunas 37 / 100

Arenas Armilla 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mijas Las Lagunas Arenas Armilla

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mijas Las Lagunas or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +27.4%

4.55

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mijas Las Lagunas attacking → ← attacking Arenas Armilla

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mijas Las Lagunas scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Arenas Armilla let in goals in 64% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 1.25 goals.

Mijas Las Lagunas went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Arenas Armilla lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 52

2.14 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mijas Las Lagunas	34	19	9	6	46:24	66
2	Motril	34	18	11	5	55:29	65
3	Torre del Mar	34	14	13	7	37:26	55
4	Arenas Armilla	34	15	9	10	38:29	54
5	Churriana de la Vega	34	14	10	10	32:40	52
6	Marbelli	34	14	9	11	36:28	51
7	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	34	13	11	10	39:38	50
8	UD San Pedro	34	13	10	11	39:37	49
9	Atletico de Porcuna	34	14	4	16	41:39	46
10	Huetor Vega	34	12	9	13	43:42	45
11	Granada CF B	34	10	14	10	49:47	44
12	CD Alhaurino	34	11	10	13	41:41	43
13	Melilla B	34	9	12	13	30:32	39
14	Mancha	34	9	10	15	30:38	37
15	Huetor Tajar	34	9	10	15	40:44	37
16	Martos	34	9	10	15	32:48	37
17	CD Torreperogil	34	9	6	19	24:45	33
18	El Palo	34	6	9	19	28:53	27