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Mijas Las Lagunas vs Marbelli Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

68' Event
Romero J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 game between Mijas Las Lagunas and Marbelli finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mijas Las Lagunas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Mijas Las Lagunas
30%
Draws
43%
Marbelli
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Marbelli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Mijas Las Lagunas carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Marbelli are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Mijas Las Lagunas Clean Sheet 17%
Marbelli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mijas Las Lagunas Marbelli
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 9 8
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.48 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.9 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mijas Las Lagunas vs Marbelli
1:0
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs Mijas Las Lagunas
1:2
Apr 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs Mijas Las Lagunas
2:1
Nov 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mijas Las Lagunas vs Marbelli
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mijas Las Lagunas Compare

Top Goalscorer Romero J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Marbelli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mijas Las Lagunas 28 / 100
Marbelli 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mijas Las Lagunas Marbelli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marbelli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mijas Las Lagunas's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Marbelli's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Mijas Las Lagunas has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mijas Las Lagunas VS Marbelli
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mijas Las Lagunas

(Home)
27 Sept
Mijas Las Lagunas
6 : 2
Tamaraceite
20 Sept
Antoniano
1 : 1
Mijas Las Lagunas
13 Sept
Mijas Las Lagunas
1 : 1
Ciudad de Lucena
06 Sept
Puente Genil
4 : 0
Mijas Las Lagunas
15 Aug
Xerez Deportivo FC
0 : 1
Mijas Las Lagunas
Page 1 of 6

Marbelli

(Away)
27 Sept
Marbelli
1 : 0
Torre del Mar
20 Sept
Huetor Vega
1 : 3
Marbelli
13 Sept
Marbelli
2 : 1
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1
Marbelli
10 May
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
0 : 2
Marbelli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 19 9 6 46:24 66
2 Motril 34 18 11 5 55:29 65
3 Torre del Mar 34 14 13 7 37:26 55
4 Arenas Armilla 34 15 9 10 38:29 54
5 Churriana de la Vega 34 14 10 10 32:40 52
6 Marbelli 34 14 9 11 36:28 51
7 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 13 11 10 39:38 50
8 UD San Pedro 34 13 10 11 39:37 49
9 Atletico de Porcuna 34 14 4 16 41:39 46
10 Huetor Vega 34 12 9 13 43:42 45
11 Granada CF B 34 10 14 10 49:47 44
12 CD Alhaurino 34 11 10 13 41:41 43
13 Melilla B 34 9 12 13 30:32 39
14 Mancha 34 9 10 15 30:38 37
15 Huetor Tajar 34 9 10 15 40:44 37
16 Martos 34 9 10 15 32:48 37
17 CD Torreperogil 34 9 6 19 24:45 33
18 El Palo 34 6 9 19 28:53 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)