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Millonarios vs Dep. Pasto - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio El Campín, Bogotá
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Llinas A.
20'
Serje Orozco E. C.
20'
Urena R.

AI Match Summary

The Primera A game between Millonarios and Dep. Pasto finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Millonarios.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Millonarios
35%
Draws
35%
Dep. Pasto
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Millonarios come out ahead of Dep. Pasto on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Millonarios's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Primera A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Millonarios Clean Sheet 20%
Dep. Pasto Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Millonarios Dep. Pasto
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 9
Draws 11 5
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.59 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 5, 2026 Primera A
Millonarios vs Dep. Pasto
2:0
Jan 29, 2026 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Millonarios
2:1
Sep 11, 2025 Primera A
Millonarios vs Dep. Pasto
1:0
Feb 1, 2025 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Millonarios
0:1
Dec 9, 2024 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Millonarios
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Millonarios Compare

Top Goalscorer Llinas A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castro L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Dep. Pasto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Millonarios 76 / 100
Dep. Pasto 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Millonarios Dep. Pasto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Millonarios Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Millonarios found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Dep. Pasto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Millonarios went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Millonarios VS Dep. Pasto
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Millonarios

(Home)
09 Oct
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
1 : 1
Millonarios
03 Oct
Barranquilla
2 : 1
Millonarios
30 Sept
Ind. Medellin
2 : 2
Millonarios
25 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1
Millonarios
19 Sept
Millonarios
3 : 0
Chico
Page 1 of 6

Dep. Pasto

(Away)
04 Oct
Dep. Pasto
0 : 0
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
25 Sept
Chico
3 : 0
Dep. Pasto
20 Sept
Dep. Pasto
1 : 0
Once Caldas
15 Sept
America De Cali
0 : 1
Dep. Pasto
10 Sept
Dep. Pasto
1 : 4
Ind. Medellin
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America De Cali 12 8 3 1 24:7 27
2 Dep. Cali 12 7 3 2 20:9 24
3 Atl. Nacional 11 7 2 2 21:10 23
4 Bucaramanga 11 6 5 0 20:10 23
5 Santa Fe 12 6 4 2 19:12 22
6 Millonarios 14 5 7 2 19:12 22
7 Ind. Medellin 12 6 2 4 19:16 20
8 Deportes Tolima 13 5 5 3 15:13 20
9 Cucuta 12 4 3 5 15:19 15
10 Llaneros 12 4 2 6 15:16 14
11 Aguilas Doradas 11 3 5 3 14:15 14
12 Once Caldas 12 3 4 5 15:16 13
13 Inter Bogotá 13 2 7 4 14:18 13
14 Chico 11 3 3 5 10:18 12
15 Fortaleza C.E.I.F. 13 1 8 4 14:19 11
16 Alianza 12 3 2 7 12:24 11
17 Junior 11 2 3 6 16:20 9
18 Dep. Pasto 12 2 3 7 9:18 9
19 Dep. Pereira 11 1 5 5 7:17 8
20 Jaguares de Cordoba 11 1 4 6 11:20 7
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)