Sport Picks
Millwall vs Newcastle Utd - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
EFL Cup The Den, London 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Dedic A. In: Livramento V.
Out: Dedic A.
62'
62'
Sub
Esse R. In: Issoufou Y.
Out: Esse R.
62'
62'
Sub
Lovelace Z. In: Arconte T.
Out: Lovelace Z.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
20%
44%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Newcastle Utd
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Millwall have won more games recently than Newcastle Utd.
- Model gives Millwall a 42% chance of winning this.
- Millwall have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Newcastle Utd, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Millwall Clean Sheet 18%
Newcastle Utd Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Millwall | Newcastle Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 5 |
| Losses | 10 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 8, 2026 EFL Cup
Millwall vs Newcastle Utd
0:1
Apr 17, 1993 Championship
Millwall vs Newcastle Utd
1:2
Dec 20, 1992 Championship
Newcastle Utd vs Millwall
1:1
Apr 18, 1992 Championship
Newcastle Utd vs Millwall
0:1
Sep 21, 1991 Championship
Millwall vs Newcastle Utd
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Millwall Compare
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Newcastle Utd Compare
Top Goalscorer Willock J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Millwall 41 / 100
Newcastle Utd 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Millwall Newcastle Utd
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Newcastle Utd's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.
Millwall found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Millwall has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Millwall VS Newcastle Utd
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Millwall
(Home) 24 Oct
Portsmouth
2 : 1 Millwall
17 Oct
Millwall
2 : 2 Lincoln City
13 Oct
Millwall
0 : 1 Swansea
10 Oct
Preston
0 : 1 Millwall
19 Sept
Millwall
2 : 2 West Ham
Page 1 of 6
17 Oct
Millwall
2 : 2 Lincoln City
13 Oct
Millwall
0 : 1 Swansea
19 Sept
Millwall
2 : 2 West Ham
08 Sept
Millwall
0 : 1 Newcastle Utd
05 Sept
Millwall
4 : 0 Bolton
Page 1 of 3
Newcastle Utd
(Away) 25 Oct
Crystal Palace
0 : 2 Newcastle Utd
17 Oct
Newcastle Utd
0 : 1 Aston Villa
12 Oct
Coventry
4 : 1 Newcastle Utd
19 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 1 Hull City
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 6
25 Oct
Crystal Palace
0 : 2 Newcastle Utd
12 Oct
Coventry
4 : 1 Newcastle Utd
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1 Newcastle Utd
08 Sept
Millwall
0 : 1 Newcastle Utd
29 Aug
Tottenham
0 : 2 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Chesterfield 0
Salford 1
Shrewsbury 2
Burton 1
Blackburn 2
Mansfield 0
Sheffield Utd 3
Ipswich -
TBD -
Leicester 1
Northampton 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff 3
Swindon 2
Norwich 4
Milton Keynes Dons 1
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 2
Huddersfield 1
TBD -
Everton -
Sheffield Wed 1
Bolton 0
Wolves 3
Port Vale 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Barnet 1
QPR 1
Millwall 2
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Rotherham 1
West Brom 4
Sunderland -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 2
Oldham 0
TBD -
Hull City -
Wycombe 1
Stevenage 2
Bromley 1
Reading 2
Swansea 0
Birmingham 1
TBD -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Tottenham -
TBD -
Cheltenham 1
Charlton 3
Chelsea -
TBD -
Gillingham 0
Luton 3
Nottingham -
TBD -
TBD -
Leeds -
Bristol City 0
Walsall 1
Leyton Orient 2
Oxford Utd 0
Bradford City 2
Rochdale 0
Burnley 2
Notts County 1
Watford 1
Crawley Town 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Peterborough 1
Barnsley 2
Wigan 1
Crewe 2
Accrington 1
Colchester 0
Southampton 2
West Ham 3
Portsmouth 1
Fulham -
TBD -
AFC Wimbledon 2
Newport 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stockport County 1
Doncaster 2
Middlesbrough 1
Wrexham 0
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grimsby 1
Blackpool 3
Derby 1
Lincoln City 2
Plymouth 2
Exeter 0
TBD -
Coventry -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Fleetwood Town 4
Shrewsbury 0
Blackburn 1
Sheffield Utd 2
Ipswich 3
Leicester 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
Cardiff 1
Norwich 2
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 0
Everton 4
Sheffield Wed 0
Wolves 2
Cambridge Utd 0
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 3
West Brom 2
Sunderland -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Hull City 2
Stevenage 0
Reading 3
Birmingham 1
Brentford 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Tottenham 5
Charlton 1
Chelsea 2
Luton 0
Nottingham 0
Leeds 2
Walsall 0
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 1
Burnley 0
Watford 1
Peterborough 5
Barnsley 3
Crewe 2
Southampton 1
West Ham 4
Fulham 3
AFC Wimbledon 0
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Doncaster 1
Middlesbrough 3
Bournemouth -
TBD -
Blackpool 1
Lincoln City 4
Plymouth 2
Coventry 4
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Sheffield Utd 0
Ipswich 2
Arsenal 4
Manchester City 5
Norwich 0
Manchester United 2
Brighton 3
Everton 1
Wolves 0
Millwall 0
Newcastle Utd 1
Sunderland 1
Hull City 0
Reading 1
Brentford 2
Liverpool 3
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 6
Leeds 3
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 3
Peterborough 4
Barnsley 3
West Ham 2
Fulham 3
Crystal Palace 3
Middlesbrough 0
Bournemouth 4
Lincoln City 0
Coventry 1
Aston Villa 3
1/8-finals
Fleetwood Town 2
Arsenal 1
Manchester City -
Brighton -
Everton -
Newcastle Utd -
Sunderland -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
Chelsea -
Bradford City 2
Peterborough 0
Fulham -
Crystal Palace -
Bournemouth -
Aston Villa -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
